Polymarket Trader

2d1d7318-b632-4243-bf81-f05a4105b6e4

0x0054ee7dfb882d2d016fa13ef5f5cdb3b0ebcf1f

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1K
Realized PnL: $2.61K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 95.2%
Current value: $190.3
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $9.7
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.3

No position

Will Mohammed bin Salman attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $144.81
Potential payout: $145.39
Potential profit: $0.58
User PnL: $1.31

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.2%
Current value: $132.94
Potential payout: $138.26
Potential profit: $5.32
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $1.77

Yes position

Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $120
User PnL: -$118.68

No position

Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $119.69
Potential payout: $119.99
Potential profit: $0.3
User PnL: $3.3

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $102.85
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $7.15
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $8.85

No position

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$85

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $83.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $16.5
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $88.63
Potential payout: $90.03
Potential profit: $1.4
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $1.31

No position

Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $49.98
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $2.03

No position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $44.12
Potential payout: $46.22
Potential profit: $2.1
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $3.79

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28.97
Potential profit: $28.97
User PnL: -$24.42

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $15.1
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $4.9
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: -$0.9

No position

Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 6, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $19.94
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $0.06
User PnL: $0.12

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83.6%
Current value: $10.24
Potential payout: $12.25
Potential profit: $2.01
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.69

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $536.42

Yes position

Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $227.54

Yes position

US-China trade deal before June?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $188.4

No position

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $156.33

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $146

Yes position

Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $137.76

No position

France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $117.59

No position

US government shutdown by October 1?

Ends Oct 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $113.1

No position

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.05

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $88

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $80

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.85

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $73.2

No position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $68.33

Yes position

Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.48

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.1

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.45

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.38

No position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

Yes position

Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $49.36

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on January 4?

Ends Jan 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $46.86

No position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on April 23?

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.29

Yes position

Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $42.85

No position

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.32

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

No 98.9% 500 shares
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

No 95.2% 99.99 shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 98.7% 25 shares
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Yes 97% 90.03 shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 93.3% 20 shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 93.4% 34.8 shares
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Yes 99% 90 shares
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Yes 99% 90 shares
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Yes 1% 100 shares
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Yes 99% 165 shares
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Yes 99% 90 shares
Starmer out by June 21, 2026?

No 97.9% 151 shares