Polymarket Trader

griseoccasio

0x00857c97e842e94eca0ecabac5e247c4b446a8fc

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.24K
Realized PnL: $120.87
Win rate: 28.6%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 21
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 70%
Current value: $949.83
Potential payout: $1.36K
Potential profit: $407.07
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: -$19.47

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $35.02
Potential payout: $412.04
Potential profit: $377.02
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: $2.06

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $34.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $265.5
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$3.5

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $57.47
Potential payout: $280.36
Potential profit: $222.89
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$2.6

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $48.75
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $201.25
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $53.75
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $196.25
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: $1.25

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $105.23
Potential profit: $105.23
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $62.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $37.5
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: $1.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35.7
Potential profit: $35.7
User PnL: -$27

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35.36
Potential profit: $35.36
User PnL: -$10

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $32.29
Potential profit: $32.29
User PnL: -$10

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $26.32
Potential profit: $26.32
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.73
Potential profit: $6.73
User PnL: -$3

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.97
Potential profit: $5.97
User PnL: -$2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.44
Potential profit: $4.44
User PnL: -$2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.17
Potential profit: $4.17
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.45
Potential profit: $3.45
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.45
Potential profit: $3.45
User PnL: -$2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.86
Potential profit: $2.86
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.7
Potential profit: $2.7
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.22
Potential profit: $2.22
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 96.2%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $65.69

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 37.5%
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: $43

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
User PnL: $10.95

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.18

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.01

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
User PnL: $0.53

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $0

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET

Down 92% 1.66 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET

Down 60% 1.67 shares
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

No 61% 100 shares
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Yes 12% 100 shares
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Yes 20% 56.41 shares
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Yes 8% 412.04 shares
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Yes 13% 200 shares
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

No 46% 500 shares
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Yes 46% 100 shares
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

No 56% 100.5 shares
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Yes 44% 138.1 shares
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Yes 21% 50 shares