Polymarket Trader

sargallot

@Sargallot

0x0097af953cf4441427142b5da7ac20ab69044a1d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.14K
Realized PnL: $113.78K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $51.87
Potential payout: $1.14K
Potential profit: $1.09K
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: -$8.12

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $130.68
Potential payout: $957.37
Potential profit: $826.69
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$29.32

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 20.8%
Current value: $193.9
Potential payout: $934.44
Potential profit: $740.54
Multiplier: 4.82x
User PnL: $33.9

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $256.01
Potential payout: $930.96
Potential profit: $674.95
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: -$43.99

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 14.8%
Current value: $132.77
Potential payout: $900.16
Potential profit: $767.39
Multiplier: 6.78x
User PnL: $52.77

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $49.48
Potential payout: $875.81
Potential profit: $826.33
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: -$30.52

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.4%
Current value: $55.77
Potential payout: $667.96
Potential profit: $612.19
Multiplier: 11.98x
User PnL: $25.78

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $50.9
Potential payout: $602.41
Potential profit: $551.51
Multiplier: 11.83x
User PnL: $0.9

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $71.67
Potential payout: $551.28
Potential profit: $479.62
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: $1.67

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18.1%
Current value: $51.64
Potential payout: $285.29
Potential profit: $233.65
Multiplier: 5.52x
User PnL: $11.64

Yes position

Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $15.3
Potential payout: $113.34
Potential profit: $98.04
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$14.7

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $76.03
Potential payout: $103.45
Potential profit: $27.41
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $46.03

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35.78
Potential profit: $35.78
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 19?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28.14
Potential profit: $28.14
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $24.05
Potential profit: $24.05
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.69
Potential profit: $20.69
User PnL: -$10.01

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.17
Potential profit: $4.17
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the government shutdown end November 12?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107.08K

Yes position

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.67K

Yes position

Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11?

Ends Jan 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $514.27

No position

Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $489.02

Yes position

Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $434.09

Yes position

Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $374.4

Yes position

Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $295.74

Alcaraz position

ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

Ends Nov 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $246.07

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $218.08

Yes position

Will PayPal Holdings (PYPL) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Oct 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $197.72

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $194.18

No position

Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $190.31

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $186.06

Yes position

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$175 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $171.44

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?

Ends Nov 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $103.07

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.83

Yes position

Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.85

No position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.56

No position

Will Trump talk to Keir Starmer in November?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $51.52

Yes position

Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.15

Yes position

Will Girona FC win on 2026-02-16?

Ends Feb 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.47

No position

Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.51

No position

Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.48

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?

No 4.5% 667.96 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

No 14% 285.29 shares
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 10.5% 683.88 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

No 13% 384.62 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

No 12% 166.67 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

No 29% 103.45 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Yes 32.2% 930.96 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Yes 99.1% 972.58 shares
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Yes 26.5% 113.33 shares
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Yes 51.8% 97.41 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Yes 81% 65 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 58% 4.08 shares