0xMerridew

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.25K
User PnL: -$150

Yes position

Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $909.09
Potential profit: $909.09
User PnL: -$50

No position

Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 96.5%
Current value: $746.17
Potential payout: $773.24
Potential profit: $27.06
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $126.17

Yes position

Will fewer than 330 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $677.38
Potential profit: $677.38
User PnL: -$39

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $665.12
Potential profit: $665.12
User PnL: -$326

Yes position

Epstein client list released by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.21
Potential payout: $483.62
Potential profit: $482.41
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$248.79

No position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $249.67
Potential payout: $387.08
Potential profit: $137.41
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: -$0.33

No position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $380.38
Potential profit: $380.38
User PnL: -$55

Yes position

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $309.49
Potential payout: $361.98
Potential profit: $52.49
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $69.07

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $318.43
Potential payout: $320.51
Potential profit: $2.08
User PnL: $68.43

Yes position

Will Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro lose the NOF1.ai competition?

Ends Nov 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $282.34
Potential profit: $282.34
User PnL: -$25

No position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $110.24
Potential payout: $120.48
Potential profit: $10.24
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $10.24

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$21

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 21?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$67

Yes position

Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$14

No position

Will Bernie Sanders be named in newly released Epstein files?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $98.35
Potential profit: $98.35
User PnL: -$96

No position

Will Google reach $315 in November?

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.8
Potential profit: $55.8
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.56
User PnL: -$50

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1PM ET

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $52.17
Potential profit: $52.17
User PnL: -$12

Yes position

Zohran Mamdani Parlay

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50.68
Potential profit: $50.68
User PnL: -$37

Texans position

Broncos vs. Texans

Ends Nov 9, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50.65
Potential profit: $50.65
User PnL: -$39

No position

Will Getty Images Holdings (GETY) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Nov 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50.63
Potential profit: $50.63
User PnL: -$40

Washington State position

Washington State vs. Oregon State

Ends Nov 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50.63
Potential profit: $50.63
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 21?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50.56
Potential profit: $50.56
User PnL: -$45

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Biden finish his term?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $269.42

Yes position

Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition?

Ends Oct 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $205.72

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $129.18

Yes position

Will 410 or more house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111.35

No position

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.96

Yes position

Will Jeannette Jara and José Antonio Kast advance to the runoff?

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.57

Yes position

Harris-Walz Democratic ticket on election day?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.9

No position

Will a Democrat win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.7

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40

Yes position

Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 19?

Ends Nov 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.76

No position

Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?

Ends Dec 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.16

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $92,000 November 10-16?

Ends Nov 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.3

Yes position

Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31

Yes position

Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.87

No position

Will Kamala Harris drop out of presidential race?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.18

No position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?

Ends Sep 18, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $29.07

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on November 11?

Ends Nov 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.67

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.46

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.39

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?