No position
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $462.09
- Potential payout
- $516.3
- Potential profit
- $54.21
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $34.39
Polymarket Trader
arturoaa1108
0x0134ad991c695d31a92d47fe83504de3bbee9054
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.08K
- Realized PnL
- $0
- Win rate
- Unavailable
- Open positions
- 18
- Closed positions
- 0
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Bill Hill advance from the AK-AL primary election?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $26.15
- Potential payout
- $275.27
- Potential profit
- $249.12
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$4.13
Yes position
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $4.43
- Potential payout
- $207.06
- Potential profit
- $202.63
- Multiplier
- 46.73x
- User PnL
- $0.91
Yes position
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Current value
- $11.87
- Potential payout
- $204.63
- Potential profit
- $192.77
- Multiplier
- 17.24x
- User PnL
- -$6.75
No position
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $190.82
- Potential payout
- $204.19
- Potential profit
- $13.37
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$2.14
No position
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $4.68
- Potential payout
- $133.83
- Potential profit
- $129.15
- Multiplier
- 28.57x
- User PnL
- -$4.68
Yes position
Will Bryce Eldridge win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?
Ends Dec 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.9%
- Current value
- $4.34
- Potential payout
- $111.27
- Potential profit
- $106.94
- Multiplier
- 25.64x
- User PnL
- -$18.96
Yes position
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.48
- Potential payout
- $106.3
- Potential profit
- $105.82
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.58
Yes position
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $36.38
- Potential payout
- $105.49
- Potential profit
- $69.11
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- -$2.65
No position
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?
Ends Nov 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $92.81
- Potential payout
- $105.47
- Potential profit
- $12.66
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $14.77
No position
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78%
- Current value
- $81.2
- Potential payout
- $104.1
- Potential profit
- $22.9
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- $8.33
Yes position
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 63%
- Current value
- $64.28
- Potential payout
- $102.03
- Potential profit
- $37.75
- Multiplier
- 1.59x
- User PnL
- $2.04
Yes position
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.3%
- Current value
- $41.86
- Potential payout
- $54.9
- Potential profit
- $13.04
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- -$1.19
Yes position
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.8%
- Current value
- $3.54
- Potential payout
- $52.5
- Potential profit
- $48.96
- Multiplier
- 14.81x
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $49.98
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $1.03
Yes position
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.7%
- Current value
- $1.34
- Potential payout
- $28.9
- Potential profit
- $27.56
- Multiplier
- 21.51x
- User PnL
- $0.5
Yes position
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 10.6%
- Current value
- $2.13
- Potential payout
- $20.21
- Potential profit
- $18.07
- Multiplier
- 9.48x
- User PnL
- $0.19
No position
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.3%
- Current value
- $4.66
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.34
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No closed positions returned for this trader.
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 97.9% 50 shares
- Will Bryce Eldridge win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?Yes 9.2% 19.63 shares
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes 3.2% 60.5 shares
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes 3.4% 34.4 shares
- Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?No 7% 30.83 shares
- Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes 1% 106.3 shares
- Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?No 94.5% 18 shares
- Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?Yes 37% 105.49 shares
- Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?No 70% 104.1 shares
- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes 61% 102.03 shares
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?No 94.3% 5 shares
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes 2.6% 55 shares