AJK2

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $25.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.97K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$4.5

Yes position

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $60.04
Potential payout: $2.36K
Potential profit: $2.3K
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$34.95

Yes position

Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $51.14
Potential payout: $2.27K
Potential profit: $2.22K
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: $1.14

Yes position

Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $33
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.97K
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: $3

No position

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $1.46K
Potential payout: $1.49K
Potential profit: $27.5
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $5.86

Yes position

Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $15.96
Potential payout: $1.1K
Potential profit: $1.08K
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$14.04

Yes position

Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $7.6
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $1.01K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$12.4

No position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $606.94
Potential payout: $656.15
Potential profit: $49.21
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $56.94

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $410.05
Potential payout: $491.08
Potential profit: $81.03
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $10.05

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $401.8
Potential payout: $443.98
Potential profit: $42.18
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $51.8

No position

Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $360.54
Potential payout: $361.45
Potential profit: $0.9
User PnL: $60.54

No position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $312.35
Potential payout: $352.94
Potential profit: $40.59
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $12.35

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $197.6
Potential payout: $343.66
Potential profit: $146.05
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: -$47.4

Yes position

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 90%
Current value: $244.99
Potential payout: $272.36
Potential profit: $27.37
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $44.99

No position

Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 91%
Current value: $228.13
Potential payout: $250.69
Potential profit: $22.56
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $28.13

Yes position

Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $2.44
Potential payout: $231.96
Potential profit: $229.52
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$2.56

No position

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 85.7%
Current value: $192.64
Potential payout: $224.78
Potential profit: $32.14
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$7.36

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.4%
Current value: $212.03
Potential payout: $224.72
Potential profit: $12.7
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $12.02

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $192.8
Potential payout: $208.43
Potential profit: $15.63
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $2.8

Yes position

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $201.13
Potential profit: $201.13
User PnL: -$150

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $155.5
Potential profit: $155.5
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $96.83
Potential payout: $147.84
Potential profit: $51
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $46.83

Yes position

Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $22.15
Potential payout: $142.88
Potential profit: $120.73
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $2.15

Yes position

Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 93.7%
Current value: $118.85
Potential payout: $126.84
Potential profit: $7.99
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $18.85

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?

Ends Jan 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $146.67

Yes position

Kristi Noem out by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $105.63

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.59

Yes position

Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.6

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.8

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.47

Yes position

Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.81

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: January

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.67

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.16

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.99

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.72

Yes position

Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.01

Yes position

Khamenei public appearance by Friday?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.37

No position

Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.13

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.96

No position

Maduro mugshot released by Monday?

Ends Jan 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.14

Yes position

Will the DHS shutdown last 14 days or more?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.4

No position

Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.73

No position

Will the Department of Homeland Security receive full-year funding by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.11

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.89

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?