Polymarket Trader

lucas37416

0x016d6724aad318c67e1381e4549f6882ac6b8341

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $13.65
Realized PnL: $2.17
Win rate: 82.4%
Open positions: 14
Closed positions: 17
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $0.24
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $7.76
Multiplier: 32.79x
User PnL: -$1.76

Yes position

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $0.28
Potential payout: $7.69
Potential profit: $7.41
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: -$1.72

No position

Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.17
Potential profit: $4.17
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $0.44
Potential payout: $4.17
Potential profit: $3.73
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$0.56

Yes position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $3.51
Potential payout: $3.51
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $1.51

No position

Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.31
Potential profit: $3.31
User PnL: -$2.53

No position

Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $3.2
Potential payout: $3.2
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.19

Yes position

Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.43
Potential profit: $2.43
User PnL: -$1.8

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $2.07
Potential payout: $2.07
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.07

No position

Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?

Ends Dec 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.47
Potential profit: $1.47
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $1.47
Potential payout: $1.47
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.47

No position

Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.43
Potential profit: $1.43
User PnL: -$1

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $1.25
Potential payout: $1.25
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.25

No position

Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $1.19
Potential payout: $1.19
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.19

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Gold position

First to 5k: Gold or ETH?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.87

No position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.52

Yes position

Zama auction clearing price above $0.04?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.33

Yes position

Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Maduro out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.17

No position

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.15

Thunder position

Clippers vs. Thunder

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.13

No position

Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 19?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.12

Yes position

Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.11

No position

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.1

No position

Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.1

No position

Ukraine strike on Moscow municipality by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.09

Yes position

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.07

No position

Will Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.04

Yes position

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?

Ends Dec 22, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.19

Yes position

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?

Ends Dec 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 18%
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: -$0.36

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch?

No 94% 3.2 shares
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch?

Yes 74% 2.43 shares
Zama auction clearing price above $0.04?

Yes 83% 1.92 shares
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?

Gold 70% 2.89 shares
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Yes 68% 1.47 shares
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Yes 25% 8 shares
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Yes 26% 7.69 shares
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Yes 57% 3.51 shares
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?

No 84% 1.19 shares
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?

No 94% 1.6 shares
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?

No 24% 4.17 shares
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Yes 24% 4.17 shares