Polymarket Trader

TorlaeAgeDefying

0x0174534317fdaadb6a5dea224001160b09e92150

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $198.5
Realized PnL: $170.1
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 11
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will the announcers say "Temperature" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $41.29
Potential payout: $60.27
Potential profit: $18.99
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: $5.85

No position

Will Trump praise Susan Dell by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $38.2
Potential payout: $49.94
Potential profit: $11.74
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $8.84

No position

Will Adidas be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $22.16
Potential payout: $48.71
Potential profit: $26.55
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: -$6.09

No position

Will Nike be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 62%
Current value: $28.73
Potential payout: $46.34
Potential profit: $17.61
Multiplier: 1.61x
User PnL: $0.46

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $21.62
Potential payout: $31.11
Potential profit: $9.49
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $1.71

No position

Starmer out by June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.33
Potential profit: $29.33
User PnL: -$17.01

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $24.05
Potential payout: $28.98
Potential profit: $4.93
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $7.82

Yes position

Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $6.55
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $3.46
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: -$2.85

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 94.9%
Current value: $8.79
Potential payout: $9.27
Potential profit: $0.48
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Maryland governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 94.2%
Current value: $4.71
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $0.29
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Arkansas governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 94.9%
Current value: $2.4
Potential payout: $2.53
Potential profit: $0.13
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.05

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.52

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.46

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.93

No position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.1

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12

No position

Kash Patel out by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.74

No position

Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.16

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.07

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.07

No position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.58

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 27?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.21

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.77

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.2

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.66

No position

Will Fidesz-KDNP win 100-114 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.27

No position

Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.9

Yes position

Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.63

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by June 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.5

No position

Will Velichie (Velichie) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.28

No position

Will Tisza win 100–109 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.28

No position

Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.25

No position

Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.2

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.2

Yes position

Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.15

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?

No 99.1% 30.92 shares
Will the Republicans win the Alabama Senate race in 2026?

Yes 94% 5 shares
Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?

Yes 94% 5 shares
Will the Democrats win the Colorado governor race in 2026?

Yes 91% 8.4 shares
Will the Republicans win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?

No 92% 5 shares
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?

Yes 93% 5 shares
Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?

Yes 91% 5 shares
Will the Democrats win the Delaware Senate race in 2026?

Yes 92% 5 shares
Will the Republicans win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026?

Yes 95% 5 shares
Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?

Yes 94.4% 5 shares
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?

No 89% 5.47 shares
Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?

No 91% 7.78 shares