Polymarket Trader

Ajatus10

0x019712855de095fe987b3541322aa1628f5070dc

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $730.39
Realized PnL: $2.02K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $45.33
Potential payout: $350
Potential profit: $304.68
Multiplier: 7.72x
User PnL: -$17.67

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 11.1%
Current value: $33.3
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $266.7
Multiplier: 9.01x
User PnL: -$8.4

Yes position

Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $262.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $37.5
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $23.5

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$73

Yes position

Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$3.56

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$89.58

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $199.99
Potential profit: $199.99
User PnL: -$11.65

No position

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 79%
Current value: $138.25
Potential payout: $175
Potential profit: $36.75
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $5.25

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 19.3%
Current value: $28.88
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $121.13
Multiplier: 5.19x
User PnL: -$11.63

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $58.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $41.5
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $19.5

No position

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 58%
Current value: $58
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $42
Multiplier: 1.72x
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$34

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $10.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $89.5
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$4.2

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $78.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $21.5
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $9.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $90.5
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$5.5

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$8

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 7.1%
Current value: $7.14
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $92.86
Multiplier: 14.01x
User PnL: -$21.79

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $99.99
User PnL: -$1.5

No position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $99.99
User PnL: -$17

Yes position

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50.01
Potential profit: $50.01
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$23.81

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$13

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Russia recapture Sudzha by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $345.09

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $189.92

Yes position

Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $175

Yes position

Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120.6

No position

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111.34

No position

Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?

Ends Apr 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.44

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.2

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.5

Yes position

Israel strikes Syria by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.25

Yes position

Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.84

Yes position

Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by December 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.5

Yes position

Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?

Ends May 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.03

Yes position

Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58

Yes position

Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?

Ends Oct 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.5

Yes position

Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.79

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46

No position

Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?

Ends May 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.99

No position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $42

Yes position

Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.8

Yes position

Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?

Ends May 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.7

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.5

Yes position

Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30

Yes position

Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.77

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

No 17% 99.99 shares
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Yes 39% 100 shares
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

No 11% 100 shares
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

Yes 78% 45 shares
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Yes 28.9% 100 shares
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

No 62% 100 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Yes 47.6% 50 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?

Yes 34% 100 shares
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 18.3% 150 shares
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 13.9% 300 shares
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?

Yes 1.8% 155 shares
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?

Yes 4.2% 100 shares