kandinsky

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40K
Potential profit: $40K
User PnL: -$40.36

No position

Will Yoon be sentenced to prison before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $24.17K
Potential profit: $24.17K
User PnL: -$135.12

Yes position

Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.54K
Potential profit: $20.54K
User PnL: -$62.67

Yes position

Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be less than 46%?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.43K
Potential profit: $13.43K
User PnL: -$27.29

Yes position

Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to no prison time?

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.19K
Potential profit: $12.19K
User PnL: -$145.26

Yes position

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?

Ends Dec 22, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.09K
Potential profit: $12.09K
User PnL: -$68.86

Yes position

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?

Ends Dec 22, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.78K
Potential profit: $10.78K
User PnL: -$173.88

Yes position

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.53K
Potential profit: $10.53K
User PnL: -$67.99

Yes position

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.12K
Potential profit: $10.12K
User PnL: -$63.57

Yes position

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.85K
Potential profit: $8.85K
User PnL: -$191.15

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.71K
Potential profit: $8.71K
User PnL: -$26.28

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Ukraine before 2027?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $29.92
Potential payout: $8.55K
Potential profit: $8.52K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$25.34

Yes position

Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 15–20 years in prison?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.5K
Potential profit: $7.5K
User PnL: -$49.54

Yes position

Will there be no coalition by October 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.46K
Potential profit: $7.46K
User PnL: -$75.29

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

Ends Jan 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.26K
Potential profit: $7.26K
User PnL: -$10.51

Yes position

Will Klaas Dijkhoff become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7K
Potential profit: $7K
User PnL: -$12

Yes position

Will Dak Prescott win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?

Ends Feb 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.17K
Potential profit: $6.17K
User PnL: -$10.33

No position

Will Han Duck-soo be sentenced to prison before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.29K
Potential profit: $5.29K
User PnL: -$21.8

Yes position

Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.14K
Potential profit: $5.14K
User PnL: -$96.34

Yes position

Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.01K
Potential profit: $5.01K
User PnL: -$11.03

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.78K

Yes position

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 61%?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.46K

No position

Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $769.99

Yes position

Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $592.2

No position

Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $559.71

No position

Will Ja Morant be traded this season?

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $506.58

Yes position

Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $505.51

No position

Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $464.44

No position

Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $416.48

Yes position

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $398.37

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $362.51

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

Ends Jan 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $251.64

Yes position

Will the 2025–2026 edition of Dick Clark's New Year's Rockin' Eve have between 17.5 million and 20 million viewers?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $244.23

No position

Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $239.03

No position

Will House and Senate pass funding bill by January 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $225.13

Yes position

Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $158.49

Timberwolves position

Spurs vs. Timberwolves

Ends Jan 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $150.82

Yes position

Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $126

Yes position

Will Trump and Robert Fico not shake hands?

Ends Jan 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120.09

Rams position

Rams vs. Bears

Ends Jan 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $119.12

Yes position

Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $118.62

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $113.36

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $112.95

Magic position

Magic vs. Pacers