Polymarket Trader

badcar

0x024e23f86509d3847417b0ad1409ccc7424c8fa1

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.19K
Realized PnL: -$95.03
Win rate: 68.2%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 22
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 90.4%
Current value: $168.14
Potential payout: $186
Potential profit: $17.86
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $4.69

No position

Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $181.96
Potential payout: $182.87
Potential profit: $0.91
User PnL: $4.24

Yes position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.67
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $149.33
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$6.23

No position

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 3?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $106.07
Potential payout: $107.36
Potential profit: $1.29
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.27

No position

Will Democratic National Rally (RND) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $100.34
Potential payout: $101
Potential profit: $0.66
User PnL: $0.35

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $85.85
Potential payout: $97
Potential profit: $11.16
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $0.48

No position

Will Slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question restoring the Office of the Special Prosecutor and National Crime Agency?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 93.6%
Current value: $84.19
Potential payout: $90
Potential profit: $5.81
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$3.18

Yes position

Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $40.23
Potential payout: $54
Potential profit: $13.77
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: $0.33

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $41.27
Potential payout: $47.99
Potential profit: $6.72
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$0.18

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $35.3
Potential payout: $39
Potential profit: $3.7
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $4.62

Yes position

Will Bev Craig win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $22.23
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $12.77
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: -$7.66

No position

Netanyahu out by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $34.56
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $0.44
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.21

No position

Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?

Ends Aug 11, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $29.07
Potential payout: $34
Potential profit: $4.93
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$0.7

Yes position

Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $28.88
Potential payout: $33
Potential profit: $4.13
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0.41

No position

Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 97.9%
Current value: $29.37
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $0.63
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $1.17

Yes position

Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 93.4%
Current value: $28.02
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $1.98
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$0.08

No position

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 91%
Current value: $27.3
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $2.7
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$0.25

No position

US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $25.62
Potential payout: $28
Potential profit: $2.38
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.45

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $24.79
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $0.21
User PnL: $2.29

No position

Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $23.78
Potential payout: $24
Potential profit: $0.22
User PnL: $0.08

No position

Peru Presidential Election Invalidated?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $23.65
Potential payout: $24
Potential profit: $0.35
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: -$0.12

No position

Will Slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question cancelling the lifetime annuity for politicians?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 95.3%
Current value: $20.01
Potential payout: $21
Potential profit: $0.99
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.27

No position

Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?

Ends Jul 24, 2026

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $19.91
Potential payout: $20.19
Potential profit: $0.28
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.11

No position

Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $12.3
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $7.7
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: -$6.15

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.48

No position

Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.57

No position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.05

No position

Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.05

No position

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on July 2?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.05

No position

Will Google (GOOGL) close above $365 on July 2?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.05

No position

Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.02

No position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.01

No position

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.01

No position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.01

No position

Iran full airspace closure by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.01

No position

Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.01

No position

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on July 2?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.01

Yes position

Will Meta (META) close above $540 on July 2?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on July 2?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 93.2%
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0

No position

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on July 2?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on July 2?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will Meta (META) close above $550 on July 2?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0

No position

Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$45.4

Yes position

Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$52.18

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2?

No 97% 0.56 shares
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2?

No 97% 52 shares
Will Democratic National Rally (RND) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?

No 99% 50 shares
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2?

No 97% 37 shares
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2?

No 97% 73 shares
Will Democratic National Rally (RND) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?

No 99% 51 shares
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 3?

No 98.7% 5.36 shares
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2?

No 97% 5 shares
Will the Republican Party win the TX-31 House seat?

Yes 86% 5 shares
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on July 2?

No 99.9% 5 shares
Will Meta (META) close above $540 on July 2?

Yes 99.9% 32.81 shares
Will Meta (META) close above $540 on July 2?

Yes 99.9% 50 shares