Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.6%
- Current value
- $299.13
- Potential payout
- $863.54
- Potential profit
- $564.41
- Multiplier
- 2.89x
- User PnL
- $159.31
Polymarket Trader
kakouguerin
0x0255962624a49894d8c57738bb5d5320069d7a19
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $556.89
- Realized PnL
- $291.67
- Win rate
- 91.7%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 9.6%
- Current value
- $44.95
- Potential payout
- $468.27
- Potential profit
- $423.32
- Multiplier
- 10.42x
- User PnL
- -$5.05
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $7.36
- Potential payout
- $123.71
- Potential profit
- $116.35
- Multiplier
- 16.81x
- User PnL
- -$4.64
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $109.57
- Potential profit
- $109.57
- User PnL
- -$48.21
Yes position
AI bubble burst in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.8%
- Current value
- $15.52
- Potential payout
- $98.25
- Potential profit
- $82.73
- Multiplier
- 6.33x
- User PnL
- -$4.48
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $87.34
- Potential profit
- $87.34
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the English Premier League for the 2026-27 season?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $79.94
- Potential profit
- $79.94
- User PnL
- -$52.76
Yes position
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $71.52
- Potential profit
- $71.52
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $58.82
- Potential profit
- $58.82
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.9%
- Current value
- $51.09
- Potential payout
- $58.82
- Potential profit
- $7.74
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $1.09
Yes position
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $47.62
- Potential profit
- $47.62
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.4%
- Current value
- $14.66
- Potential payout
- $42.55
- Potential profit
- $27.9
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- -$5.34
Yes position
Will Mikel Arteta be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $35.85
- Potential profit
- $35.85
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $34.48
- Potential profit
- $34.48
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $25.48
- Potential payout
- $32.05
- Potential profit
- $6.57
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $0.48
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $31.75
- Potential payout
- $31.75
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $11.75
Yes position
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $29.29
- Potential profit
- $29.29
- User PnL
- -$20.21
No position
Macron out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $29.12
- Potential payout
- $29.12
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $1.12
No position
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $17.96
- Potential payout
- $24.11
- Potential profit
- $6.15
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- -$2.04
Yes position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $23.26
- Potential profit
- $23.26
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Mathieu van der Poel finish in the top 3 at the 2026 Paris-Roubaix Hauts-de-France?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.1
- Potential profit
- $20.1
- User PnL
- -$9.85
No position
Will Zinedine Zidane be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $19.87
- Potential payout
- $19.87
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.06
Yes position
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.95
- Potential profit
- $16.95
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.77
- Potential profit
- $11.77
- User PnL
- -$2.82
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $167.39
No position
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.24
Yes position
Real Madrid CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.22
Yes position
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.57
Yes position
Will Wout Van Aert win the 2026 Paris-Roubaix Hauts-de-France?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.25
Yes position
Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.61
Yes position
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.96
Jannik Sinner position
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.87
Yes position
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.76
Yes position
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.65
No position
US strike on Cuba by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.39
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.63
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.62
Yes position
Will Real Madrid place 2nd for the 2025-26 LaLiga season?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.55
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.44
No position
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.32
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.28
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.11
Yes position
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.87
No position
Will "The Epstein Files" reach #1 on Apple Podcast by March 15?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.81
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.58
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 18, 2026?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
No position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 9.7% 123.71 shares
- Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 16% 312.5 shares
- Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?No 47% 42.55 shares
- Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?Yes 10.7% 468.27 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes 63% 31.75 shares
- Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the English Premier League for the 2026-27 season?Yes 66% 79.94 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes 44% 109.57 shares
- Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?Yes 69% 29.29 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Yes 92% 20.22 shares
- Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 16.3% 551.04 shares
- Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?Yes 70.4% 42.61 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 18, 2026?Yes 90% 5.56 shares