0x03141505C79F7D82eA4d426105Cb228B4eD92F6d-1766507216051

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $248.74
Potential profit: $248.74
User PnL: -$10.07

Yes position

Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $8.14
Potential payout: $222.92
Potential profit: $214.78
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: $0.85

Yes position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $2.44
Potential payout: $195.17
Potential profit: $192.73
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$0.53

No position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 16.4%
Current value: $22.47
Potential payout: $136.99
Potential profit: $114.53
Multiplier: 6.10x
User PnL: -$6.47

Yes position

Will June 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?

Implied probability: 2.7%
Current value: $3.61
Potential payout: $133.84
Potential profit: $130.22
Multiplier: 37.04x
User PnL: -$1.86

Yes position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $19.13
Potential payout: $123.4
Potential profit: $104.27
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$5.18

Yes position

Will June 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $1.31
Potential payout: $104.98
Potential profit: $103.67
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$0.37

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $1.59
Potential payout: $93.69
Potential profit: $92.09
Multiplier: 58.82x
User PnL: -$0.42

Yes position

Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers?

Implied probability: 11.1%
Current value: $10.33
Potential payout: $93.05
Potential profit: $82.72
Multiplier: 9.01x
User PnL: $1.53

No position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $37.81
Potential payout: $91.1
Potential profit: $53.29
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: $1.13

Yes position

Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $2.78
Potential payout: $89.54
Potential profit: $86.76
Multiplier: 32.26x
User PnL: $0.41

Yes position

Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be at least 5m square kilometers?

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $2.33
Potential payout: $81.91
Potential profit: $79.58
Multiplier: 35.09x
User PnL: $1.24

Yes position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $1.17
Potential payout: $80.69
Potential profit: $79.52
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$3.4

Yes position

Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.8m & 5m square kilometers?

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $77.13
Potential profit: $75.63
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: $0.63

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $75
Potential profit: $75
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $1.11
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $70.32
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $3.47
Potential payout: $56.86
Potential profit: $53.39
Multiplier: 16.39x
User PnL: -$0.59

Yes position

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $1.12
Potential payout: $54.84
Potential profit: $53.71
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.18
Potential payout: $50.03
Potential profit: $49.85
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$6.33

Yes position

Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Implied probability: 37%
Current value: $17.18
Potential payout: $46.42
Potential profit: $29.24
Multiplier: 2.70x
User PnL: -$4.84

No position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $4.39
Potential payout: $38.16
Potential profit: $33.77
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.75

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34.48
Potential profit: $34.48
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?

Implied probability: 28.1%
Current value: $9.55
Potential payout: $34
Potential profit: $24.45
Multiplier: 3.56x
User PnL: $2.07

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82.05

No position

SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 92.5%
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $37.16

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.53

No position

Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30?

Implied probability: 97.7%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $6.09

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.08

No position

Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 82%
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $6.02

Yes position

Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.89

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.28

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.9

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.1

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.7

Yes position

Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

Implied probability: 30%
Multiplier: 3.33x
User PnL: $1.98

No position

Will May 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.56

Yes position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.56

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.49

Yes position

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.46

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.32

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.32

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.14

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 9.4%
Multiplier: 10.70x
User PnL: $0.97

No position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.83

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.69

No position

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?