GrandNegroniSlurpClub

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $116.94
Potential payout: $4.98K
Potential profit: $4.86K
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: -$939.35

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $384.15
Potential payout: $4.52K
Potential profit: $4.14K
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$101.73

No position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $63.1
Potential payout: $3.94K
Potential profit: $3.88K
Multiplier: 62.50x
User PnL: -$331.37

Yes position

Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $71.97
Potential payout: $2.28K
Potential profit: $2.21K
Multiplier: 31.75x
User PnL: -$3.77

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $862.16
Potential payout: $1.45K
Potential profit: $586.85
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: -$21.5

Yes position

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 49.5%
Current value: $642.65
Potential payout: $1.3K
Potential profit: $655.64
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: -$36.28

No position

Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 13, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $64.9
Potential payout: $1.18K
Potential profit: $1.12K
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: $1.11

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $1.03K
Potential payout: $1.03K
Potential profit: $6.71
User PnL: $282.78

No position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $813.29
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $209.72
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $14.78

No position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $829.98
Potential payout: $993.99
Potential profit: $164.01
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $103.5

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $822.62
Potential payout: $951
Potential profit: $128.39
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $14.26

No position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $824.3
Potential payout: $921
Potential profit: $96.71
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $87.76

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $824.46
Potential payout: $911
Potential profit: $86.54
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $235.63

No position

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $810.69
Potential payout: $886
Potential profit: $75.31
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $57.59

No position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $777.83
Potential payout: $878.9
Potential profit: $101.07
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $181.42

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $839.45
Potential payout: $869
Potential profit: $29.55
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $40.58

No position

US strike on Mexico by December 31?

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $718.25
Potential payout: $845
Potential profit: $126.75
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $14.41

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $738.48
Potential payout: $816
Potential profit: $77.52
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $85.68

No position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $792.36
Potential payout: $806.88
Potential profit: $14.52
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $127.91

Yes position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $16.46
Potential payout: $769.13
Potential profit: $752.67
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: -$17.38

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $765.31
Potential payout: $768
Potential profit: $2.69
User PnL: $112.51

No position

AI bubble burst in 2026?

Implied probability: 80.8%
Current value: $451.54
Potential payout: $559.18
Potential profit: $107.64
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $0.04

No position

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $420.64
Potential payout: $478
Potential profit: $57.36
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $167.62

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.95K

No position

Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.07K

No position

Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.39K

No position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $503.48

No position

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $384

No position

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $283.45

No position

Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $195.14

No position

Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $179.59

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $165.44

No position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $156.24

No position

Epstein client list released by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $115.59

No position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: $107.84

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.2%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $105.05

No position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $85.22

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.64

No position

Will another country strike Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.94

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.71

No position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $42.35

No position

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $37.82

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.01

No position

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $28.32

No position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.55

No position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?