Degovnerd

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $5.73
Potential payout: $880.95
Potential profit: $875.23
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.27

Yes position

Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $9.78
Potential payout: $501.56
Potential profit: $491.78
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$1.22

Yes position

Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $5.95
Potential payout: $183.03
Potential profit: $177.08
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: -$5.05

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.9%
Current value: $9.99
Potential payout: $170.72
Potential profit: $160.73
Multiplier: 17.09x
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $1.08
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $165.58
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Consensys IPO closing market cap above $3B?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $9.17
Potential payout: $76.45
Potential profit: $67.28
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: -$12.08

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $4.7
Potential payout: $70.63
Potential profit: $65.94
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: -$1.3

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $8.91
Potential payout: $65.26
Potential profit: $56.36
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$1.09

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $4.02
Potential payout: $61.83
Potential profit: $57.81
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$2.77

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $11.29
Potential payout: $61.17
Potential profit: $49.88
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: $1.29

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 11.8%
Current value: $6.91
Potential payout: $58.82
Potential profit: $51.91
Multiplier: 8.51x
User PnL: $1.91

Yes position

Will Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $1.03
Potential payout: $48.36
Potential profit: $47.32
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: -$9.01

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 88.8%
Current value: $37.49
Potential payout: $42.22
Potential profit: $4.73
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $16.49

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $0.45
Potential payout: $31.85
Potential profit: $31.4
Multiplier: 71.43x
User PnL: -$4.55

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.21
Potential payout: $26.77
Potential profit: $26.56
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: -$10.79

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $3.03
Potential payout: $26.32
Potential profit: $23.29
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$1.97

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 38.3%
Current value: $9.33
Potential payout: $24.39
Potential profit: $15.06
Multiplier: 2.61x
User PnL: -$0.67

Yes position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $0.94
Potential payout: $23.26
Potential profit: $22.31
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: -$1.06

Yes position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.11
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.89
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$0.89

Yes position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $8.54
Potential payout: $19.62
Potential profit: $11.09
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: -$4.46

Yes position

Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?

Ends Jan 3, 2027

Implied probability: 25%
Current value: $4.82
Potential payout: $19.29
Potential profit: $14.47
Multiplier: 4.00x
User PnL: -$1.32

Yes position

Will Ethena reach $0.40 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $3.08
Potential payout: $19.23
Potential profit: $16.15
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: -$1.92

Yes position

Will Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $3.24
Potential payout: $14.71
Potential profit: $11.47
Multiplier: 4.55x
User PnL: -$1.76

Yes position

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $1.1
Potential payout: $14.71
Potential profit: $13.6
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$3.9

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.11

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.52

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.57

No position

Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.83

Yes position

Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.51

Yes position

Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.27

Yes position

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.79

Yes position

Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.8

Yes position

Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.05

No position

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.88

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 98.9%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $5.51

Yes position

Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 33.5%
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $5.23

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.7

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.65

Yes position

USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.56

Yes position

Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?

Implied probability: 6.6%
Multiplier: 15.15x
User PnL: $4.33

Yes position

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.27

Yes position

BitBoy convicted?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.19

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.08

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.8

Yes position

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 63.5%
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: $3.79

Yes position

USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.77

No position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?