0x0385c811a9f811DB212443e5a7353704eD1B7ffa-1777614358924

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$100

EDward Gaming position

LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $193.3
Potential profit: $193.3
User PnL: -$120.09

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $192.32
Potential profit: $192.32
User PnL: -$50

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $190.1
Potential payout: $192.31
Potential profit: $2.21
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $90.1

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $178.57
Potential profit: $178.57
User PnL: -$100

No position

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $154.59
Potential payout: $161.87
Potential profit: $7.28
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $4.59

Ninjas in Pyjamas position

LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $152.94
Potential profit: $152.94
User PnL: -$140

No position

Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 64%
Current value: $95.52
Potential payout: $149.25
Potential profit: $53.73
Multiplier: 1.56x
User PnL: -$4.48

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $117.12
Potential payout: $136.99
Potential profit: $19.86
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $17.12

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $129.03
Potential payout: $129.87
Potential profit: $0.84
User PnL: $29.03

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $129.09
Potential payout: $129.87
Potential profit: $0.78
User PnL: $29.09

Yes position

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 79%
Current value: $102.04
Potential payout: $129.17
Potential profit: $27.12
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $2.04

No position

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $107.5
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $17.5
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $7.5

No position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $100.61
Potential payout: $121.95
Potential profit: $21.34
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $0.61

No position

US strike on Colombia by December 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $93.37
Potential payout: $120.48
Potential profit: $27.11
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: -$6.63

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $102.41
Potential payout: $120.48
Potential profit: $18.07
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $2.41

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $109.04
Potential payout: $120.48
Potential profit: $11.45
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $9.04

No position

Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $102.98
Potential payout: $119.05
Potential profit: $16.07
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $2.98

No position

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $108.82
Potential payout: $117.65
Potential profit: $8.82
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $8.82

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Ends Jun 30, 2027

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $102.33
Potential payout: $116.28
Potential profit: $13.95
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $2.33

No position

China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 91%
Current value: $103.87
Potential payout: $114.15
Potential profit: $10.27
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $3.87

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $106.19
Potential payout: $113.58
Potential profit: $7.38
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $6.19

No position

Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $97.39
Potential payout: $112.58
Potential profit: $15.2
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$2.61

Team WE position

LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $111.11
User PnL: -$10

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $105.46

No position

Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.96

No position

Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.9

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.73

Ninjas in Pyjamas position

LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.36

Ninjas in Pyjamas position

LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.36

No position

Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.17

Weibo Gaming position

LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.42

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by May 15?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.79

No position

Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.11

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25

No position

Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.95

No position

Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.53

No position

Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.28

Bilibili Gaming position

LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.21

No position

Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.13

No position

Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.4

No position

Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.4

No position

US x China tariff agreement by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.24

No position

Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.02

No position

Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.7

Yes position

Will Putin visit China by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.28

Yes position

Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.53

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?