No position
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $120.68
- Potential payout
- $136.36
- Potential profit
- $15.68
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $0.68
Polymarket Trader
riverlost
0x03997729f56ae7cab5278d15460fff0822bca697
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $271.4
- Realized PnL
- $40.48
- Win rate
- 87.5%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $125
- Potential profit
- $125
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $94.94
- Potential payout
- $112.36
- Potential profit
- $17.42
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$5.06
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $90.91
- Potential profit
- $90.91
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 5?
Ends Jul 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $50.3
- Potential payout
- $50.3
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.3
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 4?
Ends Jul 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $5.47
- Potential payout
- $5.47
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.47
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.44
Yes position
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.13
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.82
No position
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.55
Yes position
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 19?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.6
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.5
Yes position
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.02
Yes position
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.22
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.03
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 9?
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.92
Dominik Palan position
Bengaluru 3: Dominik Palan vs Kokoro Isomura
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.43
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.32
Yes position
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 9?
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.23
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or below on April 10?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.21
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C or higher on April 10?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.21
Alex Hernandez position
Bengaluru 3: Grigoriy Lomakin vs Alex Hernandez
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.14
Yes position
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.13
Yes position
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 19?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
Oliver Johansson position
ITF Kutaisi: Oliver Johansson vs Vano Losaberidze
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.08
Yes position
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.23
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.46
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?No 88% 136.36 shares
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 5?No 99.4% 50.3 shares
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 4?Yes 91.4% 5.47 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 89% 112.36 shares
- Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?No 99.9% 230.23 shares
- Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?Yes 90% 22.22 shares
- Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?Yes 64% 23.44 shares
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No 98% 132.65 shares
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No 98% 132.65 shares
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 19?Yes 89.3% 33.6 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 1.1% 90.91 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 0.8% 125 shares