No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $161.2
- Potential payout
- $174.27
- Potential profit
- $13.07
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $27.74
Polymarket Trader
otakakot
0x03a267f8209691ca7f1a66df65effcefe450dc06
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $546.43
- Realized PnL
- $61.23
- Win rate
- 79.2%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $87.74
- Potential payout
- $105.08
- Potential profit
- $17.34
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $22.36
Yes position
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.2%
- Current value
- $57.55
- Potential payout
- $100.63
- Potential profit
- $43.08
- Multiplier
- 1.75x
- User PnL
- -$13.35
Yes position
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Current value
- $6.83
- Potential payout
- $98.21
- Potential profit
- $91.38
- Multiplier
- 14.39x
- User PnL
- -$3.17
No position
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $74.45
- Potential payout
- $97.32
- Potential profit
- $22.87
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- -$9.24
Yes position
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.1%
- Current value
- $5.31
- Potential payout
- $65.93
- Potential profit
- $60.62
- Multiplier
- 12.42x
- User PnL
- -$4.69
Y
Yes position
Will another artist be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?
Ends Apr 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $26.27
- Potential payout
- $60.4
- Potential profit
- $34.13
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- -$11.46
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $49.26
- Potential payout
- $49.39
- Potential profit
- $0.12
- User PnL
- $16.2
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $24.93
- Potential payout
- $33.46
- Potential profit
- $8.53
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $1.17
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $31
- Potential profit
- $31
- User PnL
- -$4.03
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.6%
- Current value
- $1.08
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $28.92
- Multiplier
- 27.78x
- User PnL
- -$1.73
Yes position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $4.2
- Potential payout
- $17.86
- Potential profit
- $13.66
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.8
No position
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?
Ends Jul 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.63
- Potential profit
- $15.63
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Current value
- $15.29
- Potential payout
- $15.59
- Potential profit
- $0.3
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $3.24
Yes position
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.8%
- Current value
- $4.79
- Potential payout
- $14.2
- Potential profit
- $9.41
- Multiplier
- 2.96x
- User PnL
- -$0.21
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $11.08
- Potential payout
- $12.66
- Potential profit
- $1.58
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $1.08
Yes position
Will global art market sales hit $65 billion for 2026?
Ends Apr 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Current value
- $6.06
- Potential payout
- $12.5
- Potential profit
- $6.44
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- -$1.44
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $10.4
- Potential payout
- $11.36
- Potential profit
- $0.97
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.4
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.8
- Potential profit
- $9.8
- User PnL
- -$5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.56
Yes position
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.7
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.07
No position
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.74
Yes position
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.53
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.11
Yes position
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- $2.76
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- $2.67
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.7%
- Multiplier
- 8.58x
- User PnL
- $2.64
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.19
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.26
Yes position
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1
No position
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $0.85
No position
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $0.82
No position
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- $0.43
Yes position
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Multiplier
- 90.91x
- User PnL
- $0.19
No position
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $0.13
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
No position
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- -$0.26
No position
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.27
No position
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
Ends Jan 20, 2029- Implied probability
- 32.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.78
N
No position
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 71% 33.45 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 87% 22.99 shares
- Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?No 84% 11.71 shares
- Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?No 84.2% 12.85 shares
- Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes 15.2% 65.92 shares
- Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?No 64% 15.63 shares
- Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes 37% 34.48 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 32% 41.28 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 75% 64.95 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 53% 82.49 shares
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yes 28% 17.86 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?No 70% 14.28 shares