gghff

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.88K
Potential profit: $2.88K
User PnL: -$342.71

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.03K
Potential profit: $2.03K
User PnL: -$250.94

No position

Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.2%
Current value: $1.56K
Potential payout: $1.63K
Potential profit: $61.8
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $27.34

No position

Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.4%
Current value: $983.49
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $16.5
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $33.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 3%
Current value: $29.14
Potential payout: $987.71
Potential profit: $958.57
Multiplier: 33.90x
User PnL: -$84.86

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $131.06
Potential payout: $903.84
Potential profit: $772.78
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $58.38

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $807.6
Potential payout: $809.22
Potential profit: $1.62
User PnL: $680.87

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.2
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $798.8
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$438.8

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17?

Implied probability: 89.7%
Current value: $636.67
Potential payout: $710.17
Potential profit: $73.5
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $545.41

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $163.09
Potential payout: $665.68
Potential profit: $502.59
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: -$18.75

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $185.78
Potential payout: $652.09
Potential profit: $466.31
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: $28.64

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 17?

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $177.52
Potential payout: $645.54
Potential profit: $468.02
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $29.83

No position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 52%
Current value: $314.82
Potential payout: $605.42
Potential profit: $290.6
Multiplier: 1.92x
User PnL: -$3.5

No position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 59%
Current value: $346.85
Potential payout: $587.88
Potential profit: $241.03
Multiplier: 1.69x
User PnL: $3.9

No position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $316.5
Potential payout: $541.03
Potential profit: $224.53
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: -$3

No position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $307.94
Potential payout: $526.4
Potential profit: $218.46
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: -$33.48

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $20.9
Potential payout: $522.54
Potential profit: $501.64
Multiplier: 25.00x
User PnL: -$21.11

No position

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $288.47
Potential payout: $510.66
Potential profit: $222.19
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: -$48.73

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $499.68
Potential payout: $507.04
Potential profit: $7.35
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $441.74

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $499.25
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$416.25

No position

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $497.32
Potential profit: $497.32
User PnL: -$322.47

No position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $358.64
Potential payout: $494.68
Potential profit: $136.04
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: -$10.92

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 71%
Current value: $347.37
Potential payout: $489.26
Potential profit: $141.89
Multiplier: 1.41x
User PnL: $58.5

No position

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $465.54
Potential profit: $465.54
User PnL: -$294.31

No position

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $257.08
Potential payout: $463.21
Potential profit: $206.13
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: -$9.18

No position

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 17?

Implied probability: 65%
Current value: $292.57
Potential payout: $450.1
Potential profit: $157.54
Multiplier: 1.54x
User PnL: $45.82

No position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $254.21
Potential payout: $450
Potential profit: $195.8
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: -$57.94

No position

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $268.77
Potential payout: $437.02
Potential profit: $168.25
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $11.4

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18?

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $150.61
Potential payout: $424.25
Potential profit: $273.64
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: $65.08

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 28%
Current value: $111.38
Potential payout: $397.79
Potential profit: $286.41
Multiplier: 3.57x
User PnL: $42.41

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $99.85
Potential payout: $391.56
Potential profit: $291.71
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: $35.61

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $42.48
Potential payout: $386.21
Potential profit: $343.72
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: $4.58

No position

Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $358.26
Potential payout: $379.91
Potential profit: $21.65
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.7

No position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 48%
Current value: $176.95
Potential payout: $368.65
Potential profit: $191.7
Multiplier: 2.08x
User PnL: -$108.8

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 16?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.18
Potential payout: $355.75
Potential profit: $355.57
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$118.97

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 9.3%
Current value: $32.79
Potential payout: $352.55
Potential profit: $319.76
Multiplier: 10.75x
User PnL: $14.81

No position

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 70%
Current value: $241.44
Potential payout: $344.92
Potential profit: $103.48
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: $26.89

No position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $192.97
Potential payout: $341.6
Potential profit: $148.63
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $29.87

No position

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $1.18
Potential payout: $337.36
Potential profit: $336.18
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$212.93

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 82.8%
Current value: $279.09
Potential payout: $337.06
Potential profit: $57.97
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $238.64

No position

EU dissolves before 2027?

Implied probability: 96.8%
Current value: $318.18
Potential payout: $328.87
Potential profit: $10.69
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.49

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 16?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.16
Potential payout: $326.41
Potential profit: $326.25
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$149.46

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17?

Implied probability: 70%
Current value: $223.46
Potential payout: $319.23
Potential profit: $95.77
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: $18.04

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $308.59
Potential profit: $308.44
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$33.42

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.7%
Current value: $289.95
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $10.05
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $19.95

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $297.6
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $2.4
User PnL: $2.1

No position

Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $274.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $25.5
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $1.5

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 95.8%
Current value: $287.25
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $12.75
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $17.25

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 97.4%
Current value: $292.04
Potential payout: $299.99
Potential profit: $7.95
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $37.05

No position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 67%
Current value: $191.35
Potential payout: $285.59
Potential profit: $94.24
Multiplier: 1.49x
User PnL: -$1.35

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.75K

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 14?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.09K

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 10?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $999.38

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 16?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $951.62

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 25?

Ends Mar 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $946.93

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on April 6?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $928.04

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 22?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $921.39

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on February 26?

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $869.32

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 30?

Ends Mar 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $823.04

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 18?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $782

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $779.71

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 23?

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $763.45

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 22?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $700.28

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 15?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $664.15

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 28?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $658.48

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $635.33

No position

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 3?

Ends Apr 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $627.44

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $610.02

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on May 29?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $588.98

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 3?

Ends Apr 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $575.68

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 6?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $571.62

No position

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $548.94

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $544.15

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $543.82

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $538.54

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $536.1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 36-37°F on March 13?

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $527.26

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 27?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $525.36

No position

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $519.71

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on April 6?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $516.06

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 24?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $508.92

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on April 5?

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $506.19

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 24?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $506.11

No position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $491.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 29?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $481.64

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 3?

Ends Apr 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $477.66

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 6?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $466.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on May 28?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $462.32

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 22?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $458.85

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 29?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $457.2

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 9?

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $454.88

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 29?