thursdays

Implied probability: 72.2%
Current value: $1.64K
Potential payout: $2.28K
Potential profit: $632.76
Multiplier: 1.39x
User PnL: -$489.59

No position

Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?

Implied probability: 58.6%
Current value: $1.3K
Potential payout: $2.23K
Potential profit: $922.55
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: -$624.27

No position

Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $1.72K
Potential payout: $2.03K
Potential profit: $303.85
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $382.65

No position

Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $1.77K
Potential payout: $1.87K
Potential profit: $102.92
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $558.22

No position

Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June?

Implied probability: 82.1%
Current value: $1.23K
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $269.25
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: -$104.25

Yes position

Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $8.13
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.24K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$675.69

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $1.06K
Potential payout: $1.18K
Potential profit: $124.21
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $798.73

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.1K
Potential profit: $1.1K
User PnL: -$53.7

Yes position

Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $27.89
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $986.12
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: -$199.26

Yes position

Will annual inflation be 4.5% in June?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.45
Potential payout: $968.67
Potential profit: $967.22
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$3.57

Yes position

Will annual inflation be 4.7% or more in June?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $2.9
Potential payout: $968.28
Potential profit: $965.38
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$0.21

Yes position

Will annual inflation be 4.4% in June?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.45
Potential payout: $967.94
Potential profit: $966.49
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.79

Yes position

Will annual inflation be 4.6% in June?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.45
Potential payout: $967.78
Potential profit: $966.33
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.95

No position

Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $8.7
Potential payout: $966.96
Potential profit: $958.26
Multiplier: 111.11x
User PnL: -$253.05

Yes position

Will annual inflation be 4.3% in June?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $3.85
Potential payout: $962.28
Potential profit: $958.43
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$6.95

Yes position

Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June?

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $17.32
Potential payout: $962.28
Potential profit: $944.96
Multiplier: 55.56x
User PnL: $6.95

Yes position

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $147.82
Potential payout: $953.7
Potential profit: $805.88
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$158.83

Yes position

Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 4.0%?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $2.38
Potential payout: $951.29
Potential profit: $948.91
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$14.69

Yes position

Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $13.49
Potential payout: $930.35
Potential profit: $916.86
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$5.59

Yes position

Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $11
Potential payout: $917
Potential profit: $906
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$55.83

Yes position

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $94.5
Potential payout: $900
Potential profit: $805.5
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$128.14

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $12.11
Potential payout: $865.02
Potential profit: $852.91
Multiplier: 71.43x
User PnL: -$8.06

No position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $12.33
Potential payout: $821.98
Potential profit: $809.65
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: -$239.03

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in August?

Ends Sep 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.03K

Yes position

Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in November?

Ends Dec 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.86K

No position

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in September?

Ends Oct 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.55K

No position

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in June?

Ends Jul 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.41K

Yes position

Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.38K

No position

Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in August?

Ends Sep 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.13K

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?

Ends Jun 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.9K

Yes position

Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be greater than 3.5%?

Ends Oct 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.76K

Yes position

Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in February?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.5K

Yes position

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in June?

Ends Jul 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.41K

Yes position

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in February?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.38K

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?

Ends Oct 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.38K

Yes position

Will the US add less than 25k jobs in February?

Ends Mar 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.35K

Yes position

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in January?

Ends Feb 12, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.3K

No position

Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August?

Ends Sep 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.22K

No position

Will Samuel Doria Medina qualify for Bolivia’s presidential runoff?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.22K

Yes position

"The Naked Gun" Rotten Tomatoes score is 90% or higher?

Ends Aug 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.18K

Yes position

Will US add between 250k and 300k jobs in December 2024?

Ends Jan 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.12K

Yes position

Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.09K

No position

Will Andrew Cuomo win Queens in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?

Ends Jun 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08K

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1K

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $998.97

Yes position

Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?

Ends Jul 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $991.46

Yes position

Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?