Yes position
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $9.29
- Potential payout
- $1.43K
- Potential profit
- $1.42K
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.71
Polymarket Trader
0x0523c8e6a9925f99Ba2BDb602dB53f4522047B85-1767544592499
0x0523c8e6a9925f99ba2bdb602db53f4522047b85
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $198.27
- Realized PnL
- $525.85
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Current value
- $41.18
- Potential payout
- $588.24
- Potential profit
- $547.06
- Multiplier
- 14.29x
- User PnL
- -$58.82
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $371.44
- Potential profit
- $371.44
- User PnL
- -$79.95
Yes position
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $12.02
- Potential payout
- $282.81
- Potential profit
- $270.79
- Multiplier
- 23.53x
- User PnL
- -$2.98
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $272.28
- Potential profit
- $272.28
- User PnL
- -$42.65
Yes position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $225.43
- Potential profit
- $225.43
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Trump out as President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $210.56
- Potential profit
- $210.56
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $204.16
- Potential profit
- $204.16
- User PnL
- -$70
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $199.54
- Potential profit
- $199.54
- User PnL
- -$70
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $151.62
- Potential profit
- $151.62
- User PnL
- -$80
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $138.36
- Potential profit
- $138.36
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $9.72
- Potential payout
- $129.63
- Potential profit
- $119.91
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$30.28
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $129.5
- Potential profit
- $129.5
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $120
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $118.33
- Potential profit
- $118.33
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Trump out as President by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $111.11
- Potential profit
- $111.11
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $16.11
- Potential payout
- $111.11
- Potential profit
- $95
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$3.89
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20%
- Current value
- $20.89
- Potential payout
- $104.71
- Potential profit
- $83.82
- Multiplier
- 5.01x
- User PnL
- $0.89
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 40.2%
- Current value
- $41.25
- Potential payout
- $102.74
- Potential profit
- $61.49
- Multiplier
- 2.49x
- User PnL
- $1.25
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $4.34
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $95.66
- Multiplier
- 23.04x
- User PnL
- -$5.66
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 37%
- Current value
- $29.6
- Potential payout
- $80
- Potential profit
- $50.4
- Multiplier
- 2.70x
- User PnL
- -$0.4
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 19.2%
- Current value
- $13.88
- Potential payout
- $72.46
- Potential profit
- $58.59
- Multiplier
- 5.22x
- User PnL
- -$6.12
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $68.97
- Potential profit
- $68.97
- User PnL
- -$20
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.51
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.1
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.82
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.95
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.86
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.56
Yes position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- $21.14
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.46
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $17.15
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.21
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.59
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.28
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $13.33
Yes position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.79
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.26
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.85
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.11
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.96
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.59
No position
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?
Ends Apr 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.58
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.11
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.98
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.88
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.78
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?Yes 81.4% 68.56 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Yes 62.6% 31.95 shares
- Will 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Yes 10.2% 49.09 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 27% 74.07 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Yes 25% 40 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Yes 50% 40 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?No 89% 26.66 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 36% 55.56 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?No 75% 26.67 shares
- Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes 0.7% 1,428.57 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 72% 30.77 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 65% 30.77 shares