0x057102824C6E981D2Cf6b97A967869D9855A272D-1772306218630

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.98K
Potential profit: $2.98K
User PnL: -$11.9

Yes position

Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.75K
Potential profit: $1.75K
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.33
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: Other

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $1.63
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $248.38
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $0.63

Yes position

Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $181.82
Potential profit: $181.82
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $153.85
Potential profit: $153.85
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $140.36
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.86
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $128.57
Potential profit: $128.57
User PnL: -$0.9

Yes position

Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $125
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $86.44
Potential profit: $86.44
User PnL: -$5.1

Yes position

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $76.92
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $63.02
Potential profit: $63.02
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $58.1
Potential profit: $58.1
User PnL: -$4.99

Yes position

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $43.88
Potential profit: $43.88
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $0.87
Potential payout: $42.65
Potential profit: $41.77
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$1.34

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.88
Potential profit: $29.88
User PnL: -$3.63

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 14.1%
Current value: $3.6
Potential payout: $25.52
Potential profit: $21.92
Multiplier: 7.10x
User PnL: $1.38

No position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $4.13
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $20.88
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $0.13

Yes position

Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.64
Potential profit: $22.64
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $2.11
Potential payout: $22.22
Potential profit: $20.11
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $0.11

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US strikes Iraq by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.32

Nothing position

Nothing Ever Happens: March

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.65

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.64

Yes position

Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.24

Yes position

Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.46

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Implied probability: 81%
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $2.66

Yes position

Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.95

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.73

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.73

Yes position

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.34

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33

No position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.22

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.2

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.14

Yes position

Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.05

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,500 on the final trading day of March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.92

Yes position

Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.6

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.31

Yes position

AI bubble burst in 2026?

Implied probability: 15.3%
Multiplier: 6.56x
User PnL: $0.15

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.26

Yes position

Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament?