No position
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.5K
- User PnL
- -$5
Polymarket Trader
0x0615DE742F321F7AA243C15f9427680bd3Bd836f-1776937777651
0x0615de742f321f7aa243c15f9427680bd3bd836f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.43K
- Realized PnL
- $496.51
- Win rate
- 95.8%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $49.87
- Potential payout
- $1.58K
- Potential profit
- $1.53K
- Multiplier
- 31.75x
- User PnL
- $24.88
Yes position
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $16.11
- Potential payout
- $1.4K
- Potential profit
- $1.38K
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- $6.11
Yes position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $2.96
- Potential payout
- $1.19K
- Potential profit
- $1.18K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$92.04
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.6%
- Current value
- $65.18
- Potential payout
- $1.17K
- Potential profit
- $1.11K
- Multiplier
- 18.02x
- User PnL
- -$35.82
Yes position
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $130.97
- Potential payout
- $844.94
- Potential profit
- $713.97
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- $0.97
Yes position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $344.39
- Potential payout
- $609.65
- Potential profit
- $265.26
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- $114.39
Yes position
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $8.06
- Potential payout
- $555.56
- Potential profit
- $547.5
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$1.94
Yes position
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $63.94
- Potential payout
- $456.73
- Potential profit
- $392.79
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- -$66.06
Yes position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.9%
- Current value
- $42.83
- Potential payout
- $434.78
- Potential profit
- $391.96
- Multiplier
- 10.15x
- User PnL
- -$7.17
Yes position
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Current value
- $8.38
- Potential payout
- $364.53
- Potential profit
- $356.15
- Multiplier
- 43.48x
- User PnL
- -$0.77
No position
Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.2%
- Current value
- $314.67
- Potential payout
- $334.22
- Potential profit
- $19.55
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $14.67
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $333.33
- Potential profit
- $333.33
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
Ends Aug 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $290.52
- Potential payout
- $315.78
- Potential profit
- $25.26
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $20.52
Yes position
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Current value
- $18.61
- Potential payout
- $267.74
- Potential profit
- $249.14
- Multiplier
- 14.39x
- User PnL
- -$11.39
Yes position
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $53.57
- Potential payout
- $238.1
- Potential profit
- $184.52
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- $3.57
Yes position
Anthropic’s “supply chain risk” designation removed by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $189.96
- Potential profit
- $189.96
- User PnL
- -$50
Y
Yes position
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $19.17
- Potential payout
- $166.67
- Potential profit
- $147.5
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$0.83
Yes position
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $161.29
- Potential profit
- $161.29
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $158.86
- Potential profit
- $158.86
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $142.86
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $128.21
- Potential profit
- $128.21
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $115.38
- Potential profit
- $115.38
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $113.64
- Potential profit
- $113.64
- User PnL
- -$5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $229.57
Yes position
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $114.86
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.58
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $22.84
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.77
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.11
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 10?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.57
Yes position
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.9%
- Multiplier
- 54.05x
- User PnL
- $9.32
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.07
Yes position
Will SK Brann win on 2026-05-16?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.38
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.26
Golden Knights position
Golden Knights vs. Ducks
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.95
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.88
100 Thieves position
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.44
No position
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $3.99
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.5
Yes position
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- $2.2
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.73
LOUD position
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25
LOUD position
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOUD (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.02
No position
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.37x
- User PnL
- $0.96
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 19.7%
- Multiplier
- 5.08x
- User PnL
- $0.24
Under position
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?Yes 36% 11.11 shares
- Spread: United States (-1.5)United States 29% 6.9 shares
- Will United States win on 2026-06-25?Yes 52% 3.85 shares
- Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5Over 46% 2.17 shares
- Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)Netherlands 75% 2.67 shares
- Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)Netherlands 33% 3.03 shares
- Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5Over 49% 4.08 shares
- Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5Over 29% 3.45 shares
- Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?Yes 51.1% 3.91 shares
- Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?Yes 60% 3.33 shares
- Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?Yes 51% 3.92 shares
- Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5Over 66% 3.03 shares