Polymarket Trader

Mancha

0x06160312b74b3978c24ab0293ab26a15702aea27

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $55.57
Realized PnL: $324.29
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $499.75
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.75

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $334
Potential profit: $333.5
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$49.5

Yes position

Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.63
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $249.38
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.38

Yes position

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 5.9%
Current value: $13.93
Potential payout: $238.1
Potential profit: $224.17
Multiplier: 17.09x
User PnL: $3.93

Yes position

Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $165.92
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $109.89
Potential profit: $109.89
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $95.01
Potential profit: $94.96
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$19.95

Yes position

Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $74.23
Potential profit: $74.23
User PnL: -$60

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $6.79
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $64.64
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$3.21

Yes position

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $1.07
Potential payout: $47.62
Potential profit: $46.55
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $1.25
Potential payout: $45.45
Potential profit: $44.2
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.43
Potential profit: $41.43
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $0.79
Potential payout: $38.46
Potential profit: $37.67
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$0.21

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $32.26
Potential profit: $32.26
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28.57
Potential profit: $28.57
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 27?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.03
Potential profit: $27.03
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.64
Potential profit: $25.64
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 6.4%
Current value: $1.64
Potential payout: $25.64
Potential profit: $24
Multiplier: 15.63x
User PnL: $0.64

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $19.19
Potential payout: $23.26
Potential profit: $4.07
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: -$0.81

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 42%
Current value: $8.75
Potential payout: $20.83
Potential profit: $12.08
Multiplier: 2.38x
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 27?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.05
Potential profit: $20.05
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.95
Potential profit: $16.95
User PnL: -$10

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $180.61

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 28?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 94%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $45.62

Yes position

Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.63

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.59

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.82

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.56

Yes position

Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02?

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.86

Yes position

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.81

Yes position

Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.86

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.82

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 28?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $2.61

Yes position

Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.11

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 6?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.56

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 16?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 8?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.44

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Austin be 81°F or below on May 6?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on May 6?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 18?

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.27

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.25

Yes position

Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 16?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.13

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 28?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $1.04

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Austin be 90°F or higher on May 16?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.04

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 28?

Yes 89.9% 51.85 shares
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 29?

Yes 3.9% 25.64 shares
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 28?

Yes 45% 4.54 shares
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 28?

Yes 43% 5.88 shares
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 28?

Yes 16% 6.25 shares
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 28?

Yes 1.9% 51.85 shares
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 28?

Yes 17% 5.88 shares
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 28?

Yes 11.2% 8.96 shares
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 29?

Yes 21% 4.76 shares
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29?

Yes 43% 2.33 shares
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29?

Yes 36% 2.78 shares
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 29?

Yes 7% 14.38 shares