Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $6.87K
- Potential payout
- $6.87K
- Potential profit
- $3.44
- User PnL
- $480.02
Polymarket Trader
melonmanm
0x0787a58e205a70320db638113fe8da18c8800ca3
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $10.56K
- Realized PnL
- $11.62K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.2K
- Potential payout
- $1.21K
- Potential profit
- $0.6
- User PnL
- $234.19
No position
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $544.61
- Potential payout
- $711.91
- Potential profit
- $167.3
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $153.16
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $6.05
- Potential payout
- $526.26
- Potential profit
- $520.21
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$14.34
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$2.5
Yes position
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $4.8
- Potential payout
- $436.45
- Potential profit
- $431.65
- Multiplier
- 90.91x
- User PnL
- -$11.39
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.2%
- Current value
- $263.2
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $86.8
- Multiplier
- 1.33x
- User PnL
- $62.48
Yes position
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 74%
- Current value
- $252.49
- Potential payout
- $341.2
- Potential profit
- $88.71
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $19.41
No position
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 97%
- Current value
- $201.74
- Potential payout
- $207.98
- Potential profit
- $6.24
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $32
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.9%
- Current value
- $115.8
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $84.2
- Multiplier
- 1.73x
- User PnL
- $42.95
Yes position
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $47.18
- Potential payout
- $185
- Potential profit
- $137.83
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- $2.58
No position
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Current value
- $178.64
- Potential payout
- $183.97
- Potential profit
- $5.34
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $31.72
No position
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $180
- Potential profit
- $180
- User PnL
- -$3.72
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $138.16
- Potential payout
- $176
- Potential profit
- $37.84
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $2.64
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $144.93
- Potential payout
- $155
- Potential profit
- $10.07
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $7.53
No position
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $121.78
- Potential payout
- $151.28
- Potential profit
- $29.5
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $21.42
No position
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $123.23
- Potential payout
- $143.29
- Potential profit
- $20.06
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$5.73
Yes position
Starmer out by October 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $113.4
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $6.6
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $9.6
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.1%
- Current value
- $110.31
- Potential payout
- $117.23
- Potential profit
- $6.92
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $24.66
Yes position
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $112.45
- Potential payout
- $112.84
- Potential profit
- $0.39
- User PnL
- $27.33
No position
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.4%
- Current value
- $8.11
- Potential payout
- $110.36
- Potential profit
- $102.25
- Multiplier
- 13.61x
- User PnL
- -$6.17
No position
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $101.02
- Potential profit
- $101.02
- User PnL
- -$6.91
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$6
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.28K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.87K
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.03K
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- $509.38
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- $477.31
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $461.41
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $352.3
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $349.91
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $343.22
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $334
No position
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $323.88
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $323.49
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $320.76
Yes position
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $315.59
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $309.36
Yes position
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Multiplier
- 90.91x
- User PnL
- $299.18
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $294.18
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $259.1
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- $222.85
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $220
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $214.85
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $186.87
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $174.25
N
No position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $150.88
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 11% 41.67 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 23% 579.99 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 22% 100 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 32% 275.11 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 76% 100 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 70% 30 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 70% 30 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 71% 100 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 71% 100 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 70% 50 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 38% 100 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 42% 100 shares