Polymarket Trader

Manuel

0x07a593b6439812f304ff7262c8294c06fbf30fcf

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $110.58
Realized PnL: $317.52
Win rate: 91.7%
Open positions: 10
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

US government shutdown by October 1?

Ends Oct 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $345.45
Potential profit: $345.45
User PnL: -$76

No position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 54.4%
Current value: $54.35
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $45.65
Multiplier: 1.84x
User PnL: -$6.25

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $22.23
Potential payout: $46.81
Potential profit: $24.58
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: $0.23

Yes position

Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.81
Potential profit: $23.81
User PnL: -$5

No position

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $13.43
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $1.57
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $1.72

No position

Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $15
User PnL: -$9.75

No position

Will Saudi Arabia strike Yemen by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $15
User PnL: -$9.6

No position

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $11.09
Potential payout: $12
Potential profit: $0.91
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1.73

No position

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 94.8%
Current value: $9.48
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $0.52
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.38

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $105.49

Yes position

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.64

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.14

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.34

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $24.47

Paraguay position

Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.5

No position

Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7?

Ends Feb 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.2

No position

Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.2% from May to June 2023?

Ends Jul 11, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.97

Yes position

Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga?

Ends May 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.68

No position

Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.5

Yes position

Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.52

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 45.4%
Multiplier: 2.21x
User PnL: $3.45

No position

Will any Minnesota politician be charged with fraud by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.9

No position

Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Monday?

Ends Dec 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.4

No position

Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.28

No position

Will the Fed cut rates in 2023?

Ends Dec 31, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.1

Yes position

Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.83

No position

Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.3

No position

Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 78.2%
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: $0.87

Yes position

Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.79

No position

Will Anaconda make 70 million or more domestically by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.58

No position

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 35.6%
Multiplier: 2.81x
User PnL: $0.16

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 52.5%
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: -$0.43

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.16

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?

Yes 43.7% 36.9 shares
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?

No 81.2% 28.17 shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?

Yes 49% 22 shares
Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?

Yes 8% 25 shares
Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?

Yes 1% 83.33 shares
Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?

Yes 6% 83.33 shares
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance

Argentina 13% 19.91 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?

Yes 48% 20.83 shares
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance

Argentina 80% 18.75 shares
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance

Argentina 86% 1.16 shares
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance

Paraguay 47% 50 shares
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance

Paraguay 14% 50 shares