Polymarket Trader

NotEmmanuelMacron

@RabbiJacob16

0x08155f2d7007d82b5f1954fa5bca737758141dc5

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $81.21
Realized PnL: $678.86
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Claude Code Commits be between 650.0k and 700.0k on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $18.41
Potential payout: $66.93
Potential profit: $48.52
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $14.41

Yes position

Will Claude Code Commits be between 600.0k and 650.0k on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $7.98
Potential payout: $44.36
Potential profit: $36.38
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: $1.98

No position

Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 58.8%
Current value: $25.51
Potential payout: $43.43
Potential profit: $17.91
Multiplier: 1.70x
User PnL: $6.51

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 9.1%
Current value: $2.13
Potential payout: $23.53
Potential profit: $21.4
Multiplier: 11.05x
User PnL: $0.13

Yes position

Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $4.75
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $11.92
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $3.02
Potential payout: $16.39
Potential profit: $13.37
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.5
Potential profit: $12.5
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Claude Code Commits be between 700.0k and 750.0k on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 8.4%
Current value: $0.83
Potential payout: $9.95
Potential profit: $9.12
Multiplier: 11.98x
User PnL: -$0.17

No position

Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $0.71
Potential payout: $8.33
Potential profit: $7.62
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.29

Yes position

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $155B by June 30?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 71%
Current value: $5.46
Potential payout: $7.69
Potential profit: $2.23
Multiplier: 1.41x
User PnL: $3.46

Microsoft position

Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $4.11
Potential profit: $2.61
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4
Potential profit: $4
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by June 30?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $3.62
Potential payout: $3.9
Potential profit: $0.27
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.62

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappe score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 70%
Current value: $2.41
Potential payout: $3.45
Potential profit: $1.03
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: -$0.59

No position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 93.4%
Current value: $3.08
Potential payout: $3.3
Potential profit: $0.22
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 450.0k by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $0.55
Potential payout: $2.25
Potential profit: $1.7
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: -$1.45

Yes position

No one announced as next James Bond?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $1.24
Potential payout: $1.32
Potential profit: $0.08
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.24

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $114.07

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 16?

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.39

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.93

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 14?

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.56

Yes position

Will Google say "Cutting-edge" during earnings call?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.87

Yes position

Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14?

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.33

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.69

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 13?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.91

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 27?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.4

Up position

Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on April 17?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.02

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.87

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.38

Yes position

Will Artemis II launch by April 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.52

Up position

Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 17?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.07

Yes position

Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 650.0k by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.52

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.49

Yes position

Will "AI" be said 35+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.19

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.19

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.1

Yes position

Will OPEC crude oil production be above 18 million barrels per day in May?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.81

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.47

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.16

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.11

Yes position

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.8

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will England win on 2026-06-17?

Yes 59% 1.69 shares
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?

Yes 25% 4 shares
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?

Yes 16% 12.5 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Up 96% 40.79 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Up 55% 3.64 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Up 72% 6.94 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Up 62% 8.06 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Up 70% 7.14 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Up 62% 8.06 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Up 72% 6.94 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET

Down 73% 1.72 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET

Down 58% 1.72 shares