Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.7%
- Current value
- $456.16
- Potential payout
- $2.21K
- Potential profit
- $1.75K
- Multiplier
- 4.84x
- User PnL
- -$361.17
Polymarket Trader
Magic-Mushroom-Predicting
0x08354f0ec613f7b8a0abc0b7cacf7cee899f0e07
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.53K
- Realized PnL
- $2.74K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 41.2%
- Current value
- $452.65
- Potential payout
- $1.1K
- Potential profit
- $647.35
- Multiplier
- 2.43x
- User PnL
- -$196.35
Yes position
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $87.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $412.5
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$7.5
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $437.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $62.5
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$2.5
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Current value
- $484
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $16
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
No position
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $367.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $132.5
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- -$2.5
No position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 7?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.8%
- Current value
- $244.38
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $5.63
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $2.01
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $455.6
No position
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $320
No position
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $206.44
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $198.72
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $165.6
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $165.14
Yes position
Will France win on 2026-07-04?
Ends Jul 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $160
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $147.68
No position
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $131.41
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $119.76
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $113.41
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $111
No position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.5
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.31
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $75
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
Ends Feb 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40
No position
NATO Article 5 by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.59
No position
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.31
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
Ends Feb 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.34
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.5
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.1
No position
NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.88
No position
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.11
No position
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out?
Ends Nov 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.22
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 33.6% 2,092.9 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 96.9% 500 shares
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?No 74% 500 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 88% 500 shares
- Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 7?No 96.9% 250 shares
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes 19% 500 shares
- Will France win on 2026-07-04?Yes 84% 1,000 shares
- Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 99.8% 9,466.02 shares
- Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 95% 9,466.02 shares
- Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 67% 12,585.05 shares
- Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 68% 25 shares
- Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 68% 55 shares