0x083c...a6ed

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $364.08
Potential payout: $381.23
Potential profit: $17.16
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $34.08

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 95.9%
Current value: $360.98
Potential payout: $376.41
Potential profit: $15.43
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.98

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $352.64
Potential payout: $356.75
Potential profit: $4.1
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $32.64

No position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $297.06
Potential payout: $301.13
Potential profit: $4.07
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $7.07

No position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 97.5%
Current value: $276.58
Potential payout: $283.82
Potential profit: $7.24
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $21.58

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 94.4%
Current value: $239.76
Potential payout: $253.98
Potential profit: $14.22
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: -$0.24

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.1%
Current value: $247.98
Potential payout: $252.78
Potential profit: $4.8
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $7.98

No position

Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Ends Oct 1, 2026

Implied probability: 96.1%
Current value: $202.66
Potential payout: $210.89
Potential profit: $8.22
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $2.66

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $137.1
Potential payout: $140.98
Potential profit: $3.88
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $7.1

No position

Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?

Implied probability: 96.4%
Current value: $132.95
Potential payout: $137.92
Potential profit: $4.97
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $12.95

No position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $121.91
Potential payout: $127.66
Potential profit: $5.74
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $1.91

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95%
Current value: $120.96
Potential payout: $127.39
Potential profit: $6.43
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.96

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $119.51
Potential payout: $123.71
Potential profit: $4.21
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: -$0.49

No position

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $122.23
Potential payout: $123.71
Potential profit: $1.48
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $2.23

No position

Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $111.49
Potential payout: $116.74
Potential profit: $5.25
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $1.99

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $86.23
Potential payout: $100.27
Potential profit: $14.04
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $6.23

No position

Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 91%
Current value: $87.04
Potential payout: $95.65
Potential profit: $8.61
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $2.04

No position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $82.29
Potential payout: $83.16
Potential profit: $0.87
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $2.29

No position

US bank failure by June 30?

Implied probability: 93.4%
Current value: $77.03
Potential payout: $82.47
Potential profit: $5.44
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$2.97

No position

Will Hyperliquid introduce KYC by September 30, 2026?

Ends Oct 1, 2026

Implied probability: 96%
Current value: $50.17
Potential payout: $52.26
Potential profit: $2.09
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.17

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $32.66
Potential payout: $33.26
Potential profit: $0.6
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $2.66

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $21.51
Potential payout: $23.26
Potential profit: $1.74
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1.51

No position

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $20.09
Potential payout: $21.49
Potential profit: $1.4
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.09

No position

Will Ventuals launch a token by September 30 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97%
Current value: $19.99
Potential payout: $20.62
Potential profit: $0.63
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: -$0.01

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Mitch Raposo position

UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $180

Luana Santos position

UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $124.9

M80 position

Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108.75

Arizona Diamondbacks position

Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.43

Yes position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.52

Yes position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?

Implied probability: 34.5%
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: $41.56

Murtazali Magomedov position

UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherweight, Main Card)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.9

Vinicius Oliveira position

UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Card)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.11

Shane Collins position

UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Prelims)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.76

Christian Rodriguez position

UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Main Card)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.63

Yes position

Will Slovenia vs. Cyprus end in a draw?

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.7

MIBR position

Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.39

Vitaliy Sachko position

Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Vit Kopriva

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.81

Yes position

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 3?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15

Knicks position

Knicks vs. Spurs

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.21

Levan Chokheli position

UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Prelims)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.1

No position

Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.81

Nikola Bartunkova position

Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Harriet Dart

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.26

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.23

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 2?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.71

Over position

San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.71

Bia Mesquita position

UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)