Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.5%
- Current value
- $750
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.25K
- Multiplier
- 2.67x
- User PnL
- -$10
Polymarket Trader
stanley
@shorncon
0x0907233b0636590f1a389cc82e3acc06b8ed7929
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $750
- Realized PnL
- $839.59
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 16
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the NYSE trading floor be closed on Monday?
Ends Feb 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $117.27
- Potential profit
- $117.27
- User PnL
- -$21.11
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$5
Up position
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on February 23?
Ends Feb 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$25.5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $49.99
- Potential profit
- $49.99
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
People's Bank of China rate cut by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $34.55
- Potential profit
- $34.55
- User PnL
- -$5.18
Yes position
Will "The Epstein Files" reach #1 on Apple Podcast by March 15?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$3.6
Yes position
Jumper airdrop by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.14
- Potential profit
- $7.14
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Puffer airdrop by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.35
- Potential profit
- $4.35
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Magic Eden airdrop by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.7
- Potential profit
- $3.7
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Taiko airdrop by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.79
- Potential profit
- $1.79
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $372.12
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- $112
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.64
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.6
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.99
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.52
No position
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.15
No position
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.08
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $18.86
No position
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?
Ends Mar 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.18
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 13?
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14
Yes position
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.7
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?
Ends Feb 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.6
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.91
No position
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.74
No position
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.92
Yes position
Infinex FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.59
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5
No position
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?
Ends Feb 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.29
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4
Yes position
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.72
No position
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.61
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.37
No position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.01
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes 29.1% 288 shares
- Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?No 97.4% 72.05 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?No 83% 87.42 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?No 95.5% 73.5 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?No 58.9% 880.83 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?No 58.3% 59.32 shares
- Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 96.8% 908.11 shares
- Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No 96% 915.68 shares
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes 92.9% 945.87 shares
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes 93.2% 804.71 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 88.9% 610 shares
- S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2?Up 15.3% 3,300 shares