No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $94.87
- Potential profit
- $94.87
- User PnL
- -$50.06
Polymarket Trader
global-political-spotlight
@GPoliticalS
0x092db5eb3e0f3691d313648f845b3d2282d7fc06
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $318.38
- Realized PnL
- $141.1
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 21
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $86.57
- Potential payout
- $91.6
- Potential profit
- $5.04
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $7.27
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $50.49
- Potential payout
- $57.7
- Potential profit
- $7.21
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $1.29
No position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.9%
- Current value
- $8.11
- Potential payout
- $43.03
- Potential profit
- $34.92
- Multiplier
- 5.31x
- User PnL
- -$8.39
No position
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $35.28
- Potential payout
- $38.56
- Potential profit
- $3.28
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.28
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $34.45
- Potential payout
- $36.17
- Potential profit
- $1.72
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $2.95
Yes position
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $28.17
- Potential profit
- $28.17
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Current value
- $25.61
- Potential payout
- $26.1
- Potential profit
- $0.48
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.61
No position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $21.8
- Potential payout
- $23.57
- Potential profit
- $1.77
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.8
No position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $17.65
- Potential payout
- $18.98
- Potential profit
- $1.34
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.35
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.05
- Potential profit
- $17.05
- User PnL
- -$12
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $16.42
- Potential payout
- $17.05
- Potential profit
- $0.62
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $1.42
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $5.81
- Potential payout
- $9.45
- Potential profit
- $3.64
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- -$0.19
No position
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.2
- Potential profit
- $9.2
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.93
- Potential profit
- $8.93
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $5.11
- Potential payout
- $7.14
- Potential profit
- $2.04
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $0.11
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $4.18
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.83
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $0.12
No position
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $4.38
- Potential payout
- $4.84
- Potential profit
- $0.46
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.38
Yes position
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4
- Potential profit
- $4
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.28
- Potential profit
- $3.28
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $2.52
- Potential payout
- $3.13
- Potential profit
- $0.61
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $1.52
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Australia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.04
Yes position
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.89
No position
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.6
No position
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.17
Yes position
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.49
No position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.68
No position
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.27
No position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.83
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.82
Yes position
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?
Ends Jul 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.45
No position
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.38
No position
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.9
No position
Will Neverita be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.8
No position
Will Israel or the US target Tehran?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.75
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.6
No position
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 17%
- Multiplier
- 5.88x
- User PnL
- $3.54
No position
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.5
No position
Canada vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score
Ends Jul 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.33
Yes position
Will France win on 2026-06-30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.31
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.26
No position
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.95
No position
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.86
No position
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.85
No position
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.83
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will France win on 2026-07-04?Yes 93% 7.53 shares
- Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?Yes 6% 3.57 shares
- Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?Yes 28% 3.57 shares
- Paraguay vs. France: Team to AdvanceFrance 88% 1.14 shares
- Will France win on 2026-07-04?Yes 72% 4.17 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?No 32% 3.13 shares
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No 19.6% 30 shares
- Canada vs. Morocco: Both Teams to ScoreNo 97% 5.15 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 88% 11.36 shares
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No 93.3% 3.22 shares
- Canada vs. Morocco: Both Teams to ScoreNo 87% 17.24 shares
- Canada vs. Morocco: Both Teams to ScoreNo 81% 4.94 shares