No position
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Current value
- $750.17
- Potential payout
- $765.09
- Potential profit
- $14.92
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $26.04
Polymarket Trader
Mattia.Ilenotti
0x09343a349bc2b0840c5b81378a229a4ac084f376
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.54K
- Realized PnL
- $1.98K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $628.23
- Potential payout
- $679.17
- Potential profit
- $50.94
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $74.25
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $502.04
- Potential payout
- $554.74
- Potential profit
- $52.7
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $37.47
No position
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $399.31
- Potential payout
- $436.41
- Potential profit
- $37.09
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $12.97
No position
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $392.74
- Potential payout
- $393.72
- Potential profit
- $0.98
- User PnL
- $45.05
No position
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $347.64
- Potential payout
- $372.01
- Potential profit
- $24.37
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $18.79
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $10.9
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $189.1
- Multiplier
- 18.35x
- User PnL
- -$1.1
No position
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Current value
- $145.58
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $4.43
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $7.72
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.9%
- Current value
- $94.9
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $5.1
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $8.9
Yes position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 2.2%
- Current value
- $1.29
- Potential payout
- $58.79
- Potential profit
- $57.5
- Multiplier
- 45.45x
- User PnL
- -$1.73
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $1.66
- Potential payout
- $54.52
- Potential profit
- $52.86
- Multiplier
- 32.79x
- User PnL
- -$4.15
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97%
- Current value
- $52.84
- Potential payout
- $54.5
- Potential profit
- $1.66
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $10.32
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $44.1
- Potential payout
- $50.98
- Potential profit
- $6.88
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $6.97
Yes position
Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Ends Dec 31, 2028- Implied probability
- 11.6%
- Current value
- $5.78
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $44.23
- Multiplier
- 8.66x
- User PnL
- -$1.03
No position
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $11.62
- Potential payout
- $45.57
- Potential profit
- $33.95
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- -$17.07
No position
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $2.5
- Potential payout
- $45.5
- Potential profit
- $42.99
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$10.19
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $32.17
- Potential payout
- $35.55
- Potential profit
- $3.38
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $9.51
No position
Will Roberto Vannacci be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Ends Dec 31, 2028- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $27.64
- Potential payout
- $31.25
- Potential profit
- $3.61
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $1.27
No position
Will Adele perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.6%
- Current value
- $29.51
- Potential payout
- $30.87
- Potential profit
- $1.36
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.09
Yes position
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $0.9
- Potential payout
- $28.45
- Potential profit
- $27.55
- Multiplier
- 31.75x
- User PnL
- -$1.64
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $26.56
- Potential payout
- $26.68
- Potential profit
- $0.12
- User PnL
- $2.08
No position
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 48%
- Current value
- $10.88
- Potential payout
- $22.67
- Potential profit
- $11.79
- Multiplier
- 2.08x
- User PnL
- -$4.12
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Current value
- $1.05
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $18.95
- Multiplier
- 19.05x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.8%
- Current value
- $19.55
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $0.45
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.15
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $391.53
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $179.5
Yes position
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $123.39
Yes position
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $121.51
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?
Ends Nov 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108.37
Yes position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.14
No position
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.98
No position
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.14
No position
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.45
No position
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?
Ends May 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.15
Yes position
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 China Grand Prix?
Ends Mar 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.5
Yes position
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $56.14
Yes position
Will Williams record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.64
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.19
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.14
No position
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.87
Yes position
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?
Ends Jan 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.8
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.4
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.73
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 8?
Ends Jan 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.22
No position
Will Ferrari finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.54
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $42.67
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.37
Yes position
Will McLaren have the highest Constructor score at the Chinese GP?
Ends Mar 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.4
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?No 89% 11.41 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?No 1.9% 453.27 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 65% 185.61 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 65% 5 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 63% 37 shares
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?No 44.4% 10 shares
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?No 46.3% 10 shares
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?No 95.5% 87.77 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?Yes 0.9% 90 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 68% 5 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?No 57% 1.75 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?No 33% 200 shares