Polymarket Trader

MarvelFan94

0x09789b8b51146babd57e3e33b9376f3496f800e6

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $26.49K
Realized PnL: $8.89K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 18.4%
Current value: $2.02K
Potential payout: $11K
Potential profit: $8.98K
Multiplier: 5.45x
User PnL: -$3.48K

No position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 81.7%
Current value: $8.98K
Potential payout: $11K
Potential profit: $2.02K
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $3.48K

No position

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $4.81K
Potential payout: $4.84K
Potential profit: $26.6
User PnL: $175.34

Yes position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $3.29K
Potential payout: $3.5K
Potential profit: $210
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $320.01

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 71.5%
Current value: $1.79K
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $712.5
Multiplier: 1.40x
User PnL: $168.06

No position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96%
Current value: $2.3K
Potential payout: $2.4K
Potential profit: $97.2
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $132.18

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $1.83K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $170
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $60

No position

Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $70
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $930
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$510

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.3%
Current value: $952.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $47.5
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $50.95

No position

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $253.8
Potential payout: $303.95
Potential profit: $50.15
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $25.68

Yes position

Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $36.43
Potential payout: $251.25
Potential profit: $214.82
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$20.2

Yes position

Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 4.8%
Current value: $11.88
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $238.13
Multiplier: 21.05x
User PnL: $8.54

Yes position

Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $2.88
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $247.13
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$0.46

Yes position

Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $1.88
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $248.13
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$1.46

Yes position

Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $2.38
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $247.63
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$0.96

Yes position

Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $9.25
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $240.75
Multiplier: 27.03x
User PnL: $5.91

Yes position

Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 9.1%
Current value: $22.75
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $227.25
Multiplier: 10.99x
User PnL: $19.42

Yes position

Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $5.75
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $244.25
Multiplier: 43.48x
User PnL: $2.41

Yes position

Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $1.63
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $248.38
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$1.71

Yes position

Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $1.63
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $248.38
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$1.71

Yes position

Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $5.25
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $244.75
Multiplier: 47.62x
User PnL: $1.91

Yes position

Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $1.63
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $248.38
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$1.71

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $37
Potential payout: $199.98
Potential profit: $162.98
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$39.25

No position

Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 33%
Current value: $57.75
Potential payout: $175
Potential profit: $117.25
Multiplier: 3.03x
User PnL: -$76.25

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.35K

Yes position

Starmer out by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.07K

Yes position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.1%
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: $742.8

Yes position

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $659.12

Yes position

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $597.83

Yes position

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $576.62

Yes position

Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $20m or more but less than $23m opening weekend?

Ends Jun 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $392.43

No position

Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $377.28

Yes position

Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $364

Yes position

Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend?

Ends May 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $326.5

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 28%
Multiplier: 3.57x
User PnL: $324.55

Yes position

Netanyahu out by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $294.6

Yes position

Will Ross Ulbricht say "Silk Road" during Bitcoin 2025 appearance on May 29?

Ends May 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $266.36

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by May 8?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $239.49

Yes position

Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $190.21

Yes position

Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $178.79

Yes position

Will Anthropic have closed its next funding round by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $159.99

Yes position

Will Austria finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?

Ends May 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $151.3

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $127.2

No position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $127.14

Finland position

Men's Knockout - Slovakia vs. Finland

Ends Feb 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.7

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $89.9

Yes position

Will Luxembourg qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?

Ends May 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.81

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

No 46.4% 200 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

No 35.5% 200 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 63.2% 404.94 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

No 32% 400 shares
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?

No 86% 300 shares
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

No 95.5% 200 shares
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Yes 5% 500 shares
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Yes 2.9% 500 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

No 70% 200 shares
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?

No 89% 100 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

No 89.6% 200 shares
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

No 89% 60 shares