0x0a2f0AEAAc6E189FBcD6e5F510429317427131Ae-1764625889052

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $531.63
Potential payout: $15.87K
Potential profit: $15.34K
Multiplier: 29.85x
User PnL: $181.64

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.57K
Potential profit: $8.57K
User PnL: -$60

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $354.17
Potential payout: $5.95K
Potential profit: $5.6K
Multiplier: 16.81x
User PnL: -$145.83

No position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $1.69K
Potential payout: $4.62K
Potential profit: $2.93K
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: -$313.26

Yes position

Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $23.09
Potential payout: $4.62K
Potential profit: $4.59K
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$176.91

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $240.44
Potential payout: $4.41K
Potential profit: $4.17K
Multiplier: 18.35x
User PnL: $90.45

Yes position

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $177.12
Potential payout: $4.08K
Potential profit: $3.9K
Multiplier: 23.04x
User PnL: -$22.87

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 7.1%
Current value: $217.17
Potential payout: $3.04K
Potential profit: $2.82K
Multiplier: 14.01x
User PnL: -$32.82

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 11.8%
Current value: $333.81
Potential payout: $2.84K
Potential profit: $2.51K
Multiplier: 8.51x
User PnL: $83.81

Yes position

Will xAI’s Grok 4 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.65K
Potential profit: $2.65K
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.41K
Potential profit: $2.41K
User PnL: -$1K

Yes position

Will Kimi’s Kimi K2 Thinking win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.38K
Potential profit: $2.38K
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.06K
Potential profit: $2.06K
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.72K
Potential profit: $1.72K
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$500 in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.63K
Potential profit: $1.63K
User PnL: -$400

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $204.34
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.29K
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$45.66

Yes position

Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.37K
Potential profit: $1.37K
User PnL: -$23.23

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 19.7%
Current value: $232.54
Potential payout: $1.18K
Potential profit: $950.89
Multiplier: 5.09x
User PnL: $32.55

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 4.5 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.12K
Potential profit: $1.12K
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.11K
Potential profit: $1.11K
User PnL: -$250

Yes position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.09K
Potential profit: $1.09K
User PnL: -$200

San Francisco Giants position

San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.07K
Potential profit: $1.07K
User PnL: -$333

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 12.6%
Current value: $129.38
Potential payout: $1.03K
Potential profit: $901.55
Multiplier: 7.97x
User PnL: $29.38

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 22.8%
Current value: $232.87
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $790.72
Multiplier: 4.40x
User PnL: -$17.13

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Trail Blazers position

Trail Blazers vs. Suns

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.33K

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.88K

Yes position

Will Indiana win the 2026 College Football National Championship?

Ends Jan 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.83K

Yes position

Will Oregon win the 2026 College Football National Championship?

Ends Jan 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $140.05

Thunder position

Thunder vs. Jazz

Ends Dec 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107.02

Thunder position

Clippers vs. Thunder

Ends Dec 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $97.42

Oregon position

James Madison vs. Oregon

Ends Dec 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.45

Yes position

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.7

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?

Ends Dec 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.57

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 17?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.91

Yes position

Will Trump win FIFA Peace Prize?

Ends Dec 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.55

Yes position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 63%
Multiplier: 1.59x
User PnL: -$0.16

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.19

No position

Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.76

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.98

Yes position

Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.26

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$9.09

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$9.55

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$14.62

Yes position

Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$18.53

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$22.95

Yes position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$28.98

Yes position

Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?