Polymarket Trader

TontonGuy

0x0a6c83f827c4536881e35b832e4379840a4219bf

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $42.11
Realized PnL: $57.92
Win rate: 75%
Open positions: 20
Closed positions: 20
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.29
Potential profit: $333.29
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $22.39
Potential payout: $61.34
Potential profit: $38.95
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: $6.6

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $37.88
Potential profit: $37.88
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $26.67
Potential profit: $26.67
User PnL: -$5.4

Yes position

Will Canada win on 2026-07-04?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$4.5

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $3.69
Potential payout: $23.81
Potential profit: $20.12
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$1.31

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.65
Potential profit: $23.65
User PnL: -$4.97

No position

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.73
Potential profit: $22.73
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.5
Potential profit: $20.5
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy)

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$1.8

Yes position

Will Egypt be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$1.6

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 18.3%
Current value: $3.5
Potential payout: $19.16
Potential profit: $15.66
Multiplier: 5.48x
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.8
Potential profit: $17.8
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 32.8%
Current value: $4.68
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $9.61
Multiplier: 3.05x
User PnL: -$0.32

Yes position

Will Trump or Melania say "Deal" at Chicago Opening Night?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.17
Potential profit: $12.17
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $7.85
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $2.15
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $0.35

No position

Will Trump say "Windsor" during King Charles visit?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.77
Potential profit: $8.77
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.81
Potential profit: $7.81
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Trump say "Normandy" during King Charles visit?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.19
Potential profit: $7.19
User PnL: -$5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.14

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.92

No position

Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.29

No position

Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.2

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.14

No position

Will Trump say "Trump" during King Charles visit?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.36

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.07

No position

Will Trump or Melania say "Marble" at Chicago Opening Night?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.47

No position

Will Trump or Melania say "Strait" or "Hormuz" at Chicago Opening Night?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.2

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.2

No position

Will Trump or Melania say "Sleepy" or "Biden" at Chicago Opening Night?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.14

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.94

Yes position

Ebola case in the US by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.6

Yes position

Starmer out by June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.6

No position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.98

Yes position

Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 19.6%
Multiplier: 5.10x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 9%
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$0.7

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.05

No position

Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$9.35

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$15.24

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

No 99.3% 6.02 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 35% 14.29 shares
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

No 11% 8.62 shares
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

Yes 17.5% 0.96 shares
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Yes 41% 6 shares
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

No 83% 6.02 shares
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

No 58% 8.62 shares
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Yes 33% 15.15 shares
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

No 30% 6.67 shares
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Yes 21% 23.81 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 74.9% 29.99 shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Yes 16% 10 shares