Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $132.05K
- Potential payout
- $1.06M
- Potential profit
- $924.33K
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$116.12K
Polymarket Trader
TheQuietRisk
0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $132.54K
- Realized PnL
- $1.61M
- Win rate
- 91.7%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $789.16K
- Potential profit
- $789.16K
- User PnL
- -$151.9K
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $550.99K
- Potential profit
- $550.99K
- User PnL
- -$52.15K
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200.01K
- Potential profit
- $200.01K
- User PnL
- -$16.55K
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $482.5
- Potential payout
- $137.86K
- Potential profit
- $137.38K
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$10.15K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.16K
- Potential profit
- $18.16K
- User PnL
- -$363.17
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $13.84
- Potential payout
- $3.95K
- Potential profit
- $3.94K
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$399.07
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $487.53K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $331.41K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $290.22K
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $198.45K
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $195.49K
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.63K
Yes position
Will Solana reach $200 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.49K
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.97K
Yes position
Will Ethereum reach $3700 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.42K
Yes position
Will Ethereum reach $3300 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.7K
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?
Ends Oct 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.68K
Yes position
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.8K
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $120K August 4–10?
Ends Aug 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.54K
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $118K August 4–10?
Ends Aug 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.77K
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $119K August 4–10?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.76K
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on August 8?
Ends Aug 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.38K
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $115K and $117K on August 6?
Ends Aug 6, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.7K
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $118K on August 13?
Ends Aug 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.69K
Yes position
Will Ethereum reach $4000 August 4–10?
Ends Aug 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.5K
Yes position
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3700 on August 8?
Ends Aug 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $783.03
Yes position
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Japan in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $235.45
Yes position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $154.02
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.16
Yes position
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$3.67
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 0.2% 20,727.88 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 0.1% 417,525 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 0.1% 311,666.97 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 0.1% 253,920.52 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 0.1% 92,887.51 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Yes 0.2% 118,432.45 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 0.8% 40,000 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Yes 0.6% 12,500 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 0.2% 373,989.52 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 0.4% 106,251.57 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 0.3% 229,217.44 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 8.9% 15,000 shares