0x0Aa076ea6ec2Ea7928A1AB26a15637D61e4604A3-1774352226279

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $499.25
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.25

No position

Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in June?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Trump announce John Eisenberg as the next Director of National Intelligence?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Tarcísio Motta win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?

Ends Oct 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $498.75
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: $0.25

No position

Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will "Cleaner" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Hong Kong have between 350-375mm of precipitation in June?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.21
Potential payout: $425
Potential profit: $424.79
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.64

Yes position

Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $399
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.2
Potential payout: $395.67
Potential profit: $395.47
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.59

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $348.2
Potential profit: $348.2
User PnL: -$0.7

Yes position

Will Tereza Cristina finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $333.34
Potential profit: $331.34
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.83
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $332.5
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.17

Yes position

Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.83
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $332.5
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.17

No position

Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Trump announce Tom Cotton as the next Director of National Intelligence?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.33
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.16
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.83

Yes position

Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.83
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $332.5
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.17

No position

Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.83
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $332.5
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.17

Yes position

Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $1.33
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $331.99
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: $0.33

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11AM ET

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.76

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $8.33

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.05

Yes position

Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 4.2%
Multiplier: 23.81x
User PnL: $4.98

No position

Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.46

Yes position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: $4.33

No position

Iran closes its airspace by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9AM ET

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.12

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $3.55

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1PM ET

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.77

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: $2.5

Yes position

Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.26

Yes position

Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.1

No position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.9

Yes position

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.83

No position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.55

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Implied probability: 3.8%
Multiplier: 26.32x
User PnL: $1.45

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 3.6%
Multiplier: 28.17x
User PnL: $1.43

Yes position

Over $20M committed to the ALIGN public sale?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: $1.4

Yes position

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Multiplier: 111.11x
User PnL: $1.38

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $1.35

Yes position

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.34

No position

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.34

Yes position

Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?