-metabaron-

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $37.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $462.5
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $2.5

No position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $475
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $32.5
Potential payout: $342.11
Potential profit: $309.61
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$3.29

No position

Starmer out by October 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $16.11
Potential payout: $292.82
Potential profit: $276.72
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: $1.46

Yes position

Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 97.8%
Current value: $277.91
Potential payout: $284.3
Potential profit: $6.4
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $1.05

Yes position

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $40.86
Potential payout: $209.55
Potential profit: $168.69
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $1.05

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $175.01
Potential payout: $200.01
Potential profit: $25
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $161
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $39
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $19.9
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $180.1
Multiplier: 10.05x
User PnL: -$4.7

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 9.1%
Current value: $18.1
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $181.9
Multiplier: 11.05x
User PnL: -$0.6

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

Implied probability: 21.2%
Current value: $38.93
Potential payout: $184.05
Potential profit: $145.13
Multiplier: 4.73x
User PnL: $0.09

No position

US strike on Mexico by December 31?

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $133.68
Potential payout: $163.02
Potential profit: $29.34
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: -$9.14

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $20.18
Potential payout: $161.46
Potential profit: $141.28
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$13.72

Yes position

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Ends Sep 13, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $96.28
Potential payout: $132.79
Potential profit: $36.52
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: -$0.66

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $97.66
Potential payout: $100.01
Potential profit: $2.35
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.45

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 74.4%
Current value: $74.41
Potential payout: $100.01
Potential profit: $25.6
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: $2.6

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $58.5
Potential payout: $100.01
Potential profit: $41.5
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $98.16
Potential payout: $100.01
Potential profit: $1.85
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.75

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $23.5
Potential payout: $100.01
Potential profit: $76.5
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$0.6

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $52.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $47.5
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 43%
Current value: $43
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $57
Multiplier: 2.33x
User PnL: -$3.67

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 23.9%
Current value: $23.85
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $76.15
Multiplier: 4.19x
User PnL: -$1.25

No position

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 42%
Current value: $42
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $58
Multiplier: 2.38x
User PnL: $1

No position

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $92.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $7.5
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.72

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $228.38

Yes position

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 2.9%
Multiplier: 35.09x
User PnL: $178.01

Yes position

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 25.5%
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: $164.51

No position

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $158.16

Yes position

Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $147.38

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $146.06

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: $131.51

No position

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $115.83

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $115.1

Yes position

Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: $114.62

Yes position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 34.5%
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: $102.95

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $92.55

Yes position

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 9.7%
Multiplier: 10.36x
User PnL: $90.16

Yes position

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 14%
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: $83.42

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.5

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: $77.97

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.54

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74

Yes position

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 6.6%
Multiplier: 15.27x
User PnL: $73.85

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: $69.33

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67.76

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?