Bromley86

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $6.93K
Potential payout: $6.98K
Potential profit: $45.36
User PnL: $82.99

No position

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $5.01K
Potential payout: $5.42K
Potential profit: $406.53
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $435.71

No position

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $4.88K
Potential payout: $4.92K
Potential profit: $44.31
User PnL: $87.97

Yes position

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $2.64K
Potential payout: $4.03K
Potential profit: $1.39K
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $138.87

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $3.03K
Potential payout: $3.06K
Potential profit: $29.06
User PnL: $160.69

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $814.03
Potential payout: $3.01K
Potential profit: $2.2K
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: -$403.38

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $2.99K
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $7.5
User PnL: $265.01

No position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $2.97K
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $27
User PnL: $238.01

No position

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $2.76K
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $240
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $13.34

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $2.77K
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $225
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $340.02

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $2.02K
Potential payout: $2.52K
Potential profit: $490.5
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $301.87

No position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $1.77K
Potential payout: $2.1K
Potential profit: $325.49
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$45.27

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $1.99K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $7
User PnL: $40

No position

Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$314.17

No position

Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.78K
Potential profit: $1.78K
User PnL: -$1.46K

No position

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $1.43K
Potential payout: $1.44K
Potential profit: $15.14
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $94.18

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 95.3%
Current value: $1.37K
Potential payout: $1.44K
Potential profit: $68.47
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $38.02

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 83.7%
Current value: $1.05K
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $204.37
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $167.43

No position

Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 93.9%
Current value: $1.05K
Potential payout: $1.12K
Potential profit: $68.6
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$0.59

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 97.6%
Current value: $1.03K
Potential payout: $1.06K
Potential profit: $25.34
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $21.74

No position

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $873.59
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $166.4
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: -$11.39

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98%
Current value: $979.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $20.5
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $49.5

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.7%
Current value: $956.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $43.5
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $26.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.46K

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.35K

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.2K

Yes position

Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.85K

Yes position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.53K

Yes position

Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.24K

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.16K

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 8?

Ends Jan 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $773.19

No position

Will Borussia Dortmund advance to the round of 16?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $718.16

Yes position

Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $623.64

Yes position

Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $592.71

Yes position

Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $577.87

Yes position

Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $547.01

Yes position

Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $475.78

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $455.59

Yes position

Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $415.69

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $393.44

No position

Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $385.78

Yes position

Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $385.74

Yes position

Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $365.34

Yes position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $357.39

No position

Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $349.89

Yes position

Will Ukraine re-enter Novomykolaivka by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $342.7

Yes position

Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?