timalex

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $4.87
Potential payout: $5.26
Potential profit: $0.39
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.87

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on July 11?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $4.76
Potential payout: $5.2
Potential profit: $0.44
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.76

No position

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 11?

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $3.49
Potential payout: $5.1
Potential profit: $1.61
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: -$0.51

No position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on July 11?

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $4.93
Potential payout: $5.07
Potential profit: $0.14
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.93

No position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 11?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $4.97
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $0.03
User PnL: $0.97

No position

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 12?

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $1.88
Potential payout: $2.74
Potential profit: $0.86
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: -$0.12

No position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 12?

Implied probability: 68%
Current value: $1.86
Potential payout: $2.74
Potential profit: $0.88
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: -$0.14

No position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 12?

Implied probability: 71%
Current value: $1.92
Potential payout: $2.7
Potential profit: $0.78
Multiplier: 1.41x
User PnL: -$0.08

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 11?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $2.31
Potential payout: $2.7
Potential profit: $0.39
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $0.31

No position

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on July 11?

Implied probability: 72%
Current value: $1.92
Potential payout: $2.67
Potential profit: $0.75
Multiplier: 1.39x
User PnL: -$0.08

No position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 12?

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $2.04
Potential payout: $2.67
Potential profit: $0.63
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $0.04

No position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 11?

Implied probability: 71%
Current value: $1.89
Potential payout: $2.67
Potential profit: $0.77
Multiplier: 1.41x
User PnL: -$0.11

No position

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $2.67
Potential payout: $2.67
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.67

No position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 11?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $2.23
Potential payout: $2.67
Potential profit: $0.44
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.23

No position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.67
Potential profit: $2.67
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.67
Potential profit: $2.67
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 12?

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $1.59
Potential payout: $2.67
Potential profit: $1.08
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: -$0.41

No position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 11?

Implied probability: 80%
Current value: $2.13
Potential payout: $2.67
Potential profit: $0.53
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $0.13

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 11?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $2.67
Potential payout: $2.67
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.67

No position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 11?

Implied probability: 67%
Current value: $1.79
Potential payout: $2.67
Potential profit: $0.88
Multiplier: 1.49x
User PnL: -$0.21

No position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 12?

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $2.35
Potential payout: $2.67
Potential profit: $0.32
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0.35

No position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 13?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 64%
Current value: $1.71
Potential payout: $2.67
Potential profit: $0.96
Multiplier: 1.56x
User PnL: -$0.29

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 11?

Implied probability: 43%
Current value: $1.15
Potential payout: $2.67
Potential profit: $1.52
Multiplier: 2.33x
User PnL: -$0.85

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 13?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $2.01
Potential payout: $2.67
Potential profit: $0.65
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $0.01

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.67

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.67

No position

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.67

No position

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.67

No position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.67

No position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.67

No position

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.67

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.67

No position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.65

No position

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.63

No position

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.63

No position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.63

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.63

No position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.6

No position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.6

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.53

No position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.53

No position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.53

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.48

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.47

No position

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.44

No position

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.44

No position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 10?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.44

No position

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 10?