Yes position
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $421.84
- Potential payout
- $30.13K
- Potential profit
- $29.71K
- Multiplier
- 71.43x
- User PnL
- $166.26
Polymarket Trader
melganis
0x0bfb8009df6c46c1fdd79b65896cf224dc4526a7
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $16.56K
- Realized PnL
- $36.69K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $5.77K
- Potential payout
- $5.78K
- Potential profit
- $2.89
- User PnL
- $3.79K
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $161.06
- Potential payout
- $5.28K
- Potential profit
- $5.12K
- Multiplier
- 32.79x
- User PnL
- -$350.64
Yes position
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $34.8
- Potential payout
- $4.09K
- Potential profit
- $4.06K
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$10.6
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.1%
- Current value
- $202
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $3.8K
- Multiplier
- 19.80x
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.8%
- Current value
- $142.5
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $2.86K
- Multiplier
- 21.05x
- User PnL
- $16.5
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.53K
- Potential payout
- $1.53K
- Potential profit
- $0.76
- User PnL
- $361.11
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $600.75
- Potential payout
- $1.35K
- Potential profit
- $749.25
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- -$173.25
Yes position
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $1.21K
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $45
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $852.51
- Potential payout
- $1.1K
- Potential profit
- $247.5
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $64.01
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 53%
- Current value
- $565.32
- Potential payout
- $1.07K
- Potential profit
- $501.32
- Multiplier
- 1.89x
- User PnL
- $1.69
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72%
- Current value
- $764.18
- Potential payout
- $1.06K
- Potential profit
- $297.18
- Multiplier
- 1.39x
- User PnL
- $150.95
Yes position
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $22.47
- Potential payout
- $1.05K
- Potential profit
- $1.03K
- Multiplier
- 46.73x
- User PnL
- -$70.53
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $999.49
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- User PnL
- $261.5
No position
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 28%
- Current value
- $241.14
- Potential payout
- $861.2
- Potential profit
- $620.06
- Multiplier
- 3.57x
- User PnL
- -$220.06
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 35%
- Current value
- $300.96
- Potential payout
- $859.89
- Potential profit
- $558.93
- Multiplier
- 2.86x
- User PnL
- $18.5
No position
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $89.25
- Potential payout
- $850
- Potential profit
- $760.75
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$32.25
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 12%
- Current value
- $101.49
- Potential payout
- $845.72
- Potential profit
- $744.23
- Multiplier
- 8.33x
- User PnL
- $31.91
No position
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $5.07
- Potential payout
- $845.55
- Potential profit
- $840.48
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$15.48
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $794.8
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $5.2
- User PnL
- $52.8
No position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $667.99
- Potential payout
- $799.99
- Potential profit
- $132
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 27.5%
- Current value
- $214.15
- Potential payout
- $778.74
- Potential profit
- $564.58
- Multiplier
- 3.64x
- User PnL
- -$269.95
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $177.63
- Potential payout
- $725.01
- Potential profit
- $547.38
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- -$17.84
No position
Is Earth flat?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Current value
- $700.36
- Potential payout
- $717.95
- Potential profit
- $17.59
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $3.23
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.1K
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.91K
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.78K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.44K
Yes position
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.15K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.92K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.81K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.71K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.4K
Yes position
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.11K
No position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.07K
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.05K
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.05K
Yes position
Will "Marty Supreme" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
Ends Dec 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $993.48
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $985.83
No position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $972.12
Yes position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $923.02
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $879.32
No position
Will "How to Make a Killing" score at least 56 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
Ends Feb 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $828.25
No position
Will "How to Make a Killing" score at least 58 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
Ends Feb 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $751.34
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $742.94
No position
Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $728.04
No position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $713.56
Yes position
Will LaGuardia Airport (LGA) be open to departures by 2:00 PM ET on March 23, 2026?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $685
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will "The Death of Robin Hood" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes 99% 1,000 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes 31% 500 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No 84% 171.25 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 37.6% 400 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by July 15?Yes 10% 100 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 24% 200 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?No 96% 100 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No 90% 50 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Yes 1% 700 shares
- Will "The Death of Robin Hood" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes 98% 50 shares
- Will "The Death of Robin Hood" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes 98% 200 shares
- Will "The Death of Robin Hood" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Yes 99% 183.54 shares