Yes position
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.5K
- Potential profit
- $15.5K
- User PnL
- -$31
Polymarket Trader
EdwardThorp
0x0c2bce774444fab4e2aa008eab93c26c65a2ce19
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $186.46
- Realized PnL
- $325.94
- Win rate
- 50%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 22
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $3.5
- Potential payout
- $1.4K
- Potential profit
- $1.4K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.7
Yes position
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $7.7
- Potential payout
- $699.83
- Potential profit
- $692.13
- Multiplier
- 90.91x
- User PnL
- -$3.95
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.1%
- Current value
- $151.37
- Potential payout
- $458
- Potential profit
- $306.63
- Multiplier
- 3.03x
- User PnL
- $42.82
Yes position
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $2.39
- Potential payout
- $227.5
- Potential profit
- $225.11
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$0.8
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Current value
- $5.25
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $94.75
- Multiplier
- 19.05x
- User PnL
- $1.35
Yes position
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $1.35
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $98.65
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$1.05
Yes position
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%?
Ends Jan 12, 2027- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $2.92
- Potential payout
- $53.51
- Potential profit
- $50.59
- Multiplier
- 18.35x
- User PnL
- -$23.84
Yes position
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?
Ends Jan 12, 2027- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $11.99
- Potential payout
- $51.02
- Potential profit
- $39.03
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- $2.18
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $188.51
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $172.96
Yes position
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95.49
Yes position
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.61
Yes position
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.9%
- Multiplier
- 35.09x
- User PnL
- $15.75
Yes position
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Multiplier
- 23.53x
- User PnL
- $9.19
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8
Yes position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $7.77
Yes position
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.1%
- Multiplier
- 4.54x
- User PnL
- $4.46
Yes position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.4
No position
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.03
Yes position
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.63
Yes position
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.50% and 3.99%?
Ends Jan 12, 2027- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Multiplier
- 47.62x
- User PnL
- -$1.9
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.9%
- Multiplier
- 5.93x
- User PnL
- -$4.21
N
No position
Will Eduardo Pazuello win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
Ends Oct 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$6.96
Yes position
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$15
No position
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$19.44
Yes position
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$32.75
Yes position
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$35.56
Yes position
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$66.79
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 17.2% 421.41 shares
- Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 18.2% 421.41 shares
- Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 23.7% 458 shares
- Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 1.4% 227.5 shares
- Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 0.3% 1,400 shares
- Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 1.7% 453 shares
- Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 1.6% 246.83 shares
- Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?Yes 8.5% 241.9 shares
- Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?Yes 90% 47.11 shares
- Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?Yes 89% 108.74 shares
- Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?Yes 88% 5 shares
- Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?Yes 87% 110.31 shares