No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.7%
- Current value
- $1.25K
- Potential payout
- $1.31K
- Potential profit
- $56.15
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $252.94
Polymarket Trader
0x0C2c51CD59335D6e5b1aFA6ED865C1E7F352DCe3-1771502209336
0x0c2c51cd59335d6e5b1afa6ed865c1e7f352dce3
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.83K
- Realized PnL
- $818.23
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $160.76
- Potential payout
- $171.02
- Potential profit
- $10.26
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $39.84
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $56.64
- Potential profit
- $56.64
- User PnL
- -$13
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $36.22
- Potential payout
- $52.88
- Potential profit
- $16.66
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- -$3.78
No position
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $42.81
- Potential payout
- $45.07
- Potential profit
- $2.25
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $2.81
No position
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.8%
- Current value
- $43.35
- Potential payout
- $44.35
- Potential profit
- $1
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $3.35
Yes position
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $29.29
- Potential payout
- $41.54
- Potential profit
- $12.26
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- -$0.71
No position
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $34.64
- Potential payout
- $40.04
- Potential profit
- $5.41
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $1.64
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Current value
- $18.87
- Potential payout
- $38.9
- Potential profit
- $20.03
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- -$3.13
Yes position
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12%
- Current value
- $4.51
- Potential payout
- $37.62
- Potential profit
- $33.11
- Multiplier
- 8.33x
- User PnL
- -$17.49
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $27.2
- Potential payout
- $27.33
- Potential profit
- $0.12
- User PnL
- $2.2
No position
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $25.24
- Potential payout
- $26.43
- Potential profit
- $1.19
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.24
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Current value
- $22.85
- Potential payout
- $23.26
- Potential profit
- $0.41
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $2.85
No position
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.9%
- Current value
- $20.76
- Potential payout
- $21.42
- Potential profit
- $0.66
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.76
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 69%
- Current value
- $14.25
- Potential payout
- $20.65
- Potential profit
- $6.4
- Multiplier
- 1.45x
- User PnL
- -$0.51
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Current value
- $18.51
- Potential payout
- $18.98
- Potential profit
- $0.47
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $1.5
Y
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $15.25
- Potential payout
- $18.71
- Potential profit
- $3.46
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $10.06
- Potential payout
- $12.66
- Potential profit
- $2.6
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $10.79
- Potential payout
- $11.92
- Potential profit
- $1.13
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.79
No position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?
Ends Aug 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $10.06
- Potential payout
- $11.49
- Potential profit
- $1.44
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $11.3
- Potential payout
- $11.36
- Potential profit
- $0.06
- User PnL
- $1.3
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $10.27
- Potential payout
- $10.75
- Potential profit
- $0.48
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.27
No position
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $10.08
- Potential payout
- $10.46
- Potential profit
- $0.38
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.31
- Potential profit
- $10.31
- User PnL
- -$10
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $111.03
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.78
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.13
No position
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.62
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.59
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.68
No position
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.02
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.08
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.12
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $31
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.36
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.25
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.2
Yes position
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.33
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.76
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.05
Yes position
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $19.65
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $17.04
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.75
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.26
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.09
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.9
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16?
Ends Mar 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.96
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.56
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?Yes 99.7% 4.2 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 83% 12.05 shares
- Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 80% 1.25 shares
- Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 92% 5.43 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 75% 6.67 shares
- Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?Yes 65% 1.54 shares
- Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?Yes 99.9% 6.04 shares
- Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?Yes 97% 1.03 shares
- Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?Yes 91.8% 1.09 shares
- Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?Yes 75.8% 1.32 shares
- Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?Yes 90% 1.11 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 95.2% 10.5 shares