MiniElTigre

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15K
Potential profit: $15K
User PnL: -$29.9

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.5K
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.5K
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Netherlands finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $11.79
Potential payout: $314.5
Potential profit: $302.71
Multiplier: 26.67x
User PnL: -$2.99

Yes position

Printr FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $41.57
Potential payout: $185.18
Potential profit: $143.61
Multiplier: 4.45x
User PnL: $26.57

No position

o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $2.73
Potential payout: $136.36
Potential profit: $133.63
Multiplier: 50.00x
User PnL: -$12.27

No position

Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $136.36
Potential profit: $136.36
User PnL: -$15

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $136.36
Potential profit: $136.36
User PnL: -$20.83

Yes position

Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $10.38
Potential payout: $115.38
Potential profit: $105
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$4.62

Yes position

Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $17.88
Potential payout: $115.38
Potential profit: $97.5
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $2.88

Yes position

o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $12.23
Potential payout: $106.38
Potential profit: $94.15
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$2.77

Yes position

Will ECDSA.fail get at least 50% ahead of Google’s classified circuit by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $32.83
Potential payout: $98
Potential profit: $65.17
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $24.01

Yes position

Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $11.63
Potential payout: $93
Potential profit: $81.38
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $2.32

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $14.21
Potential payout: $78.94
Potential profit: $64.73
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: -$0.79

No position

Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $15.34
Potential payout: $68.18
Potential profit: $52.84
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: $0.34

Yes position

Will Hong Kong have between 375-400mm of precipitation in June?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.26
Potential payout: $56.75
Potential profit: $56.49
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$4.85

Yes position

Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.55
Potential profit: $55.55
User PnL: -$15

No position

Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48.38
Potential profit: $48.38
User PnL: -$15

No position

Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $45.18
Potential profit: $45.18
User PnL: -$15

No position

o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $1.95
Potential payout: $35.52
Potential profit: $33.57
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$11.19

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $4.72
Potential payout: $34.93
Potential profit: $30.21
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $1.92

Yes position

Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $12.74
Potential payout: $34.9
Potential profit: $22.16
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: $8.9

No position

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 45%
Current value: $13.77
Potential payout: $30.61
Potential profit: $16.84
Multiplier: 2.22x
User PnL: -$1.22

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

Implied probability: 61.7%
Current value: $14.64
Potential payout: $23.73
Potential profit: $9.09
Multiplier: 1.62x
User PnL: -$0.36

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 20.9%
Multiplier: 4.80x
User PnL: $27.42

No position

Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 47.5%
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: $19.8

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.24

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 13%
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: $10.73

No position

Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 16.7%
Multiplier: 6.01x
User PnL: $9.47

Yes position

Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 52%
Multiplier: 1.92x
User PnL: $8.27

Yes position

Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $7.5

Yes position

Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 32.5%
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: $7.5

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $6.73

Yes position

Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 35%
Multiplier: 2.86x
User PnL: $6.6

Yes position

Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2026 NFC East?

Ends Jan 4, 2027

Implied probability: 30.5%
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: $6.5

No position

Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027?

Ends Jul 1, 2027

Implied probability: 13.5%
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $6

No position

Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 85%
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $5.9

No position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $4.76

Yes position

Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 27%
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: $3.78

No position

Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 60.3%
Multiplier: 1.66x
User PnL: $3.77

Yes position

Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.75

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.43

No position

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 71%
Multiplier: 1.41x
User PnL: $3.26

Yes position

Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 41.5%
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: $2.8

No position

Will Claude Code Commits be between 700.0k and 750.0k on June 30?

Implied probability: 91.7%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $2.78

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.59

No position

Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?

Implied probability: 40.5%
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: $2.51

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?