0x0C8fF5A768767FF83f59BF13c73939a89D391cB8-1764629850090

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $736.4
Potential profit: $736.4
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.35
Potential payout: $708.49
Potential profit: $708.13
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$19.64

Yes position

Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $19.17
Potential payout: $416.67
Potential profit: $397.5
Multiplier: 21.74x
User PnL: -$30.83

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $374.69
Potential profit: $374.69
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $346.07
Potential profit: $346.07
User PnL: -$19

Yes position

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $341.48
Potential profit: $341.31
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$59.83

Yes position

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $211.85
Potential profit: $211.85
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $152.92
Potential profit: $152.92
User PnL: -$18

Yes position

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $145.88
Potential profit: $145.88
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 94.9%
Current value: $138.22
Potential payout: $145.65
Potential profit: $7.43
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $38.22

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.2
Potential payout: $132.23
Potential profit: $132.03
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$17.8

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $125
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $1.66
Potential payout: $123.09
Potential profit: $121.43
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$3.34

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $115.38
Potential profit: $115.38
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $102.78
Potential profit: $102.78
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $88.45
Potential payout: $89.56
Potential profit: $1.12
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $82.32

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $80.16
Potential payout: $80.16
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $53.33

Yes position

Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $4.38
Potential payout: $79.64
Potential profit: $75.26
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$45.62

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $7.74
Potential payout: $61.93
Potential profit: $54.19
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$3.89

No position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $61.09
Potential profit: $61.09
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $6.06
Potential payout: $57.69
Potential profit: $51.63
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$1.94

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $255.57

No position

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9?

Ends Dec 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123.7

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.87

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.89

No position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.95

Yes position

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?

Ends Dec 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.19

Yes position

Claude 4.7 released by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.88

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.88

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.32

Yes position

Claude 4.7 released by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.28

No position

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?

Ends Dec 13, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.18

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.72

Yes position

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?

Ends Dec 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.75

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.69

Yes position

Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.33

Yes position

Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of January 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.19

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.12

No position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.02

Yes position

GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.55

No position

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.45

Yes position

Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.14

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.84

Yes position

Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.58

No position

Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?