Yes position
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $7.32
- Potential payout
- $2.44K
- Potential profit
- $2.43K
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- -$5.39
Polymarket Trader
arbokbro
0x0cc7d88b8890e876766666de07f8cad98778bc74
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $94.18
- Realized PnL
- $18.79
- Win rate
- 50%
- Open positions
- 12
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.36
- Potential payout
- $241.34
- Potential profit
- $240.97
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$2.64
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $2.24
- Potential payout
- $212.98
- Potential profit
- $210.75
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$4.22
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.3%
- Current value
- $6.51
- Potential payout
- $200.28
- Potential profit
- $193.77
- Multiplier
- 30.77x
- User PnL
- -$0.63
Yes position
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.5%
- Current value
- $67.41
- Potential payout
- $180
- Potential profit
- $112.59
- Multiplier
- 2.67x
- User PnL
- -$7.11
Yes position
Will xAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $1.7
- Potential payout
- $66.93
- Potential profit
- $65.23
- Multiplier
- 39.37x
- User PnL
- -$0.81
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.7%
- Current value
- $3.11
- Potential payout
- $66.1
- Potential profit
- $62.99
- Multiplier
- 21.28x
- User PnL
- $1.52
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $0.87
- Potential payout
- $28
- Potential profit
- $27.13
- Multiplier
- 32.26x
- User PnL
- -$2.21
No position
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $0.64
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $19.36
- Multiplier
- 31.25x
- User PnL
- -$0.42
Yes position
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.2%
- Current value
- $0.93
- Potential payout
- $18
- Potential profit
- $17.07
- Multiplier
- 19.42x
- User PnL
- -$0.12
Yes position
AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $2.7
- Potential payout
- $12
- Potential profit
- $9.3
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- $0.66
No position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $0.41
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.6
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- -$0.74
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.1
No position
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.6
Yes position
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- $3.24
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.87
Yes position
Will Trump say "Bunker" in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.44
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.35
Yes position
Will there be exactly 0 major space weather events this week?
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.58
No position
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.4
No position
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12?
Ends Jun 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.13
Yes position
Will Bernie say "Revolution" or "Revolutionary" in Maine?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.11
Yes position
Will Evil Morty appear in Rick and Morty: Season 9?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.61
Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between May 25 and May 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.58
Yes position
Will Trump say "Cat" in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will anyone say "God" during Rick and Morty E4 S9?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.3
No position
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.42
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12?
Ends Jun 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.73
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.77
Yes position
Will anyone say "Possible" or "Impossible" during Rick and Morty E4 S9?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.87
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 57m and 61m?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.02
Yes position
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.05
Yes position
Will anyone say "Ninja" during Rick and Morty E4 S9?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.05
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 1.8% 56 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 2.4% 66.1 shares
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 0.8% 346.53 shares
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 0.6% 224.99 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 2.1% 48 shares
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 0.6% 144 shares
- Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?No 5.3% 20 shares
- Will xAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 7.8% 14 shares
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 0.9% 192.99 shares
- Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes 5.8% 18 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?Yes 10% 10 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?Yes 13% 10 shares