Yes position
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.7%
- Current value
- $23.82
- Potential payout
- $506.71
- Potential profit
- $482.9
- Multiplier
- 21.28x
- User PnL
- $6.54
Polymarket Trader
RolandZhang
0x0cd65d7e26be5f6a26e24ff20335c8ef0baa2784
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $760.06
- Realized PnL
- $715.34
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $265.78
- Potential profit
- $265.78
- User PnL
- -$198.43
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $188.08
- Potential payout
- $205.56
- Potential profit
- $17.47
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $3.08
No position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $13.07
- Potential payout
- $201
- Potential profit
- $187.94
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$5.03
No position
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 54%
- Current value
- $89.52
- Potential payout
- $165.78
- Potential profit
- $76.26
- Multiplier
- 1.85x
- User PnL
- $81.41
Yes position
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $143.5
- Potential profit
- $143.5
- User PnL
- -$8.61
Yes position
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.9%
- Current value
- $21.49
- Potential payout
- $135.17
- Potential profit
- $113.68
- Multiplier
- 6.29x
- User PnL
- $13.38
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $10.85
- Potential payout
- $114.18
- Potential profit
- $103.33
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$1.71
Y
Yes position
Will Kai Newkirk be the AZ-04 Democratic nominee?
Ends Jul 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.4%
- Current value
- $9.03
- Potential payout
- $107.53
- Potential profit
- $98.49
- Multiplier
- 11.90x
- User PnL
- -$1.4
No position
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Current value
- $103.34
- Potential payout
- $105.4
- Potential profit
- $2.06
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $3.34
No position
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $104.75
- Potential payout
- $105.01
- Potential profit
- $0.26
- User PnL
- $4.75
N
No position
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $100.92
- Potential payout
- $104.42
- Potential profit
- $3.5
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.92
Yes position
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Ends Aug 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.3%
- Current value
- $20.44
- Potential payout
- $87.92
- Potential profit
- $67.48
- Multiplier
- 4.30x
- User PnL
- $7.06
Yes position
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.9%
- Current value
- $7.44
- Potential payout
- $83.59
- Potential profit
- $76.15
- Multiplier
- 11.24x
- User PnL
- -$1.56
No position
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?
Ends Jul 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $59.31
- Potential profit
- $59.31
- User PnL
- -$9.49
Yes position
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Ends Aug 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $9.5
- Potential payout
- $46.35
- Potential profit
- $36.85
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$0.65
Yes position
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 28%
- Current value
- $12.59
- Potential payout
- $44.95
- Potential profit
- $32.37
- Multiplier
- 3.57x
- User PnL
- -$6.71
Y
Yes position
Will 175-199 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.08
- Potential payout
- $41.5
- Potential profit
- $41.42
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$7.09
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $33.15
- Potential payout
- $39.23
- Potential profit
- $6.08
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $20.99
Y
Yes position
Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.02
- Potential payout
- $35.09
- Potential profit
- $35.07
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$7.7
N
No position
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 32.6%
- Current value
- $9.76
- Potential payout
- $29.95
- Potential profit
- $20.18
- Multiplier
- 3.07x
- User PnL
- -$4.53
Y
Yes position
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.01
- Potential payout
- $25.08
- Potential profit
- $25.07
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$6.82
No position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.01
- Potential payout
- $16.5
- Potential profit
- $16.49
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.3
No position
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Ends Aug 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $2.2
- Potential payout
- $3.58
- Potential profit
- $1.38
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $0.8
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $104.06
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $102.31
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.32
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.43
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.06
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.85
No position
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.57
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.88
No position
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.13
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.37
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.34
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.07
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.52
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.08
No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.56
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.74
N
No position
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.66
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.05
Yes position
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.92
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.26
No position
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.56
No position
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.88
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.69
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Yes 21.9% 46.35 shares
- Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Yes 42.9% 44.95 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 90% 205.56 shares
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No 63% 0.33 shares
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?No 9% 201 shares
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No 63% 11.61 shares
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No 63% 0.28 shares
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No 63% 0.35 shares
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No 62% 6.6 shares
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No 60% 0.02 shares
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No 61% 0.04 shares
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No 61% 4.41 shares