0x0dA3B22E31309EEC06a1cc245cCBb4f70f9267fA-1771914344109

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13K
Potential profit: $13K
User PnL: -$259.49

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.5K
Potential profit: $12.5K
User PnL: -$86.5

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.5K
Potential profit: $12.5K
User PnL: -$74

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $661.29
Potential payout: $3.39K
Potential profit: $2.73K
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $87.71

Yes position

Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.28K
Potential profit: $1.28K
User PnL: -$4.66

Yes position

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.28K
Potential profit: $1.28K
User PnL: -$5.5

Yes position

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.28K
Potential profit: $1.28K
User PnL: -$39.1

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $896.93
Potential payout: $1.09K
Potential profit: $190.26
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $142.18

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $119.85
Potential payout: $773.23
Potential profit: $653.38
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$65.79

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $590
Potential profit: $590
User PnL: -$7.44

No position

Kristi Noem out by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $585
Potential profit: $585
User PnL: -$35.1

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $320
Potential profit: $320
User PnL: -$6.72

Yes position

Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the March meeting?

Ends Mar 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $215
Potential profit: $215
User PnL: -$1.72

Yes position

Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting?

Ends Mar 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $215
Potential profit: $215
User PnL: -$55.9

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$12

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $190.02
Potential profit: $190.02
User PnL: -$14.8

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $190
Potential profit: $190
User PnL: -$2.51

Yes position

Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?

Ends Sep 8, 2026

Implied probability: 4.4%
Current value: $7.97
Potential payout: $181.17
Potential profit: $173.2
Multiplier: 22.73x
User PnL: -$4.36

Yes position

Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.58
Potential payout: $164.64
Potential profit: $164.06
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$24.12

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $141.25
Potential profit: $141.25
User PnL: -$5.11

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the CA-17 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 2.6%
Current value: $3.59
Potential payout: $138.08
Potential profit: $134.49
Multiplier: 38.46x
User PnL: -$4.69

Yes position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $137.3
Potential profit: $137.3
User PnL: -$23.34

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 65%
Current value: $88.82
Potential payout: $136.64
Potential profit: $47.82
Multiplier: 1.54x
User PnL: $68.46

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $2.04
Potential payout: $110.18
Potential profit: $108.14
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$15.59

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-13?

Ends Jan 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $813.73

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.8

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.33

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43

Yes position

Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.79

Yes position

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.6

Yes position

No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.1

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.42

Yes position

Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the March decision?

Ends Mar 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.6

No position

Trump out as President by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6

Yes position

Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the April Meeting?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.6

No position

Rojas guilty in Texas illegal abortion case?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.85

No position

Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.36

Yes position

Will Ned Lamont win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election?

Ends Aug 11, 2026

Implied probability: 96.7%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $1.92

Yes position

Will Sherrod Brown be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.2

Yes position

Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $0.82

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.61

Yes position

Will Chris Coons be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Delaware?

Ends Sep 15, 2026

Implied probability: 95.1%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.46

Yes position

Will Hallie Shoffner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Arkansas?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026?