luish

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $1.76K
Potential payout: $2.15K
Potential profit: $387.18
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: -$1.04

No position

Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $714.64
Potential payout: $715
Potential profit: $0.36
User PnL: $7.44

No position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30?

Implied probability: 31.5%
Current value: $126
Potential payout: $399.99
Potential profit: $273.99
Multiplier: 3.17x
User PnL: $57

No position

Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2027

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $293.59
Potential payout: $388.86
Potential profit: $95.27
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $87.61

No position

Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 96.3%
Current value: $317.63
Potential payout: $330
Potential profit: $12.38
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $41.03

Yes position

Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 25%
Current value: $82.12
Potential payout: $328.49
Potential profit: $246.37
Multiplier: 4.00x
User PnL: -$47.01

No position

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $259.55
Potential payout: $290
Potential profit: $30.45
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $42.05

No position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $204.04
Potential payout: $277.61
Potential profit: $73.57
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $123.25

No position

Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 97.6%
Current value: $228.26
Potential payout: $233.99
Potential profit: $5.73
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $67.42

No position

Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $175
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $25
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $49.11

No position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $168
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $32
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $31

No position

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $137.74
Potential payout: $165.95
Potential profit: $28.21
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $23.88

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June?

Implied probability: 97.8%
Current value: $146.63
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $3.38
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $50.63

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $3.6
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $146.4
Multiplier: 41.67x
User PnL: -$9.9

No position

Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $149.54
Potential profit: $149.54
User PnL: -$80.49

No position

Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $114.28
Potential payout: $136.86
Potential profit: $22.58
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $25.69

No position

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $21
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $79
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: $15

No position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30?

Implied probability: 93.9%
Current value: $93.9
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $6.1
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $30.9

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?

Implied probability: 97.8%
Current value: $97.8
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $2.2
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $53.8

No position

Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?

Implied probability: 80%
Current value: $65.03
Potential payout: $81.29
Potential profit: $16.26
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $5.12

Yes position

Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Implied probability: 75%
Current value: $53.34
Potential payout: $71.13
Potential profit: $17.78
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: $24.89

No position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 93.4%
Current value: $59
Potential payout: $63.17
Potential profit: $4.17
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $2.24

No position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 56.4%
Current value: $31.81
Potential payout: $56.41
Potential profit: $24.6
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $28.42

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $49.23
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $0.77
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $22.73

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Aztec launch a token in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $455.01

No position

Will Opensea launch a token by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $407.09

No position

Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $379.04

No position

Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $251.88

Yes position

GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $185.74

Yes position

Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $136.46

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $114.67

No position

AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $106.98

Yes position

Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94

Yes position

Will AI be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $93.44

Yes position

Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.88

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.99

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67.25

No position

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $59.2

Yes position

TikTok sale announced in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.2

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.7

Yes position

Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.43

Yes position

Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $42.1

No position

Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?

Implied probability: 64.5%
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $41.42

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist?