No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $1.19K
- Potential payout
- $1.36K
- Potential profit
- $170.55
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $250.74
Polymarket Trader
gusgusg
0x0e2cc652e8f987820efc26dc988de884e3069294
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.35K
- Realized PnL
- $3.87K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $631.09
- Potential payout
- $697.34
- Potential profit
- $66.25
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $241.98
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.8%
- Current value
- $73.64
- Potential payout
- $626.73
- Potential profit
- $553.09
- Multiplier
- 8.51x
- User PnL
- $22.88
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $425.29
- Potential payout
- $430.67
- Potential profit
- $5.38
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $83.17
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $124.36
- Potential payout
- $261.82
- Potential profit
- $137.46
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- $5.57
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.8%
- Current value
- $186.58
- Potential payout
- $225.47
- Potential profit
- $38.89
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- -$2.01
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $208.85
- Potential payout
- $209.38
- Potential profit
- $0.52
- User PnL
- $63.97
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $51.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $48.5
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- $3.5
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Current value
- $84.69
- Potential payout
- $86.2
- Potential profit
- $1.51
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $5.5
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $40.25
- Potential payout
- $70
- Potential profit
- $29.75
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- -$0.35
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $60.93
- Potential payout
- $65.16
- Potential profit
- $4.24
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $10.28
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $54.77
- Potential payout
- $57.5
- Potential profit
- $2.73
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.99
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $53.31
- Potential payout
- $53.55
- Potential profit
- $0.24
- User PnL
- $7.66
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $52.63
- Potential profit
- $52.63
- User PnL
- -$10.73
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $0.68
- Potential payout
- $46.88
- Potential profit
- $46.2
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$4.95
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40.32
- Potential profit
- $40.32
- User PnL
- -$4.77
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $34.2
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $5.8
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $3
No position
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47%
- Current value
- $18.8
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $21.2
- Multiplier
- 2.13x
- User PnL
- $0.8
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $34.37
- Potential payout
- $39.28
- Potential profit
- $4.91
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.85
Yes position
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 48%
- Current value
- $16.56
- Potential payout
- $34.5
- Potential profit
- $17.94
- Multiplier
- 2.08x
- User PnL
- -$5.09
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.2%
- Current value
- $22.25
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $7.75
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $4.93
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $23.55
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $6.45
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$18.6
No position
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Ends Sep 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 51%
- Current value
- $15
- Potential payout
- $29.41
- Potential profit
- $14.41
- Multiplier
- 1.96x
- User PnL
- -$3.12
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $991.31
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $321.04
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $263.11
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $252.37
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $216.29
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $185.63
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $177.83
Yes position
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $165.82
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $138.48
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $138
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $103.74
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $102.93
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.09
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $82.46
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80.78
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.83
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.83
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $70.27
No position
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.22
Yes position
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.1
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.26
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.68
Yes position
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.92
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.25
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 26% 0.45 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 26% 0.75 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 26% 0.7 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 26% 1.35 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 26% 0.84 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 26% 1.21 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 26% 0.94 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 26% 1.19 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 47% 3.31 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 47% 9.7 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 47% 5.8 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 26% 0.33 shares